Automated Trucking: Federal Agencies Should Take Additional Steps to Prepare for Potential Workforce Effects
Fast Facts
GAO-19-161
What could self-driving trucks mean for hundreds of thousands of the nation's long-haul truck drivers?
We found two possible scenarios:
Long-haul highway driving will be fully automated, resulting in fewer trucking jobs and possibly lower wages, or
Self-driving trucks may still need operators, possibly changing the skillset and wages without significantly affecting the number of trucking jobs
Because widespread use of self-driving trucks is still years to decades away, we recommend that the Departments of Labor and Transportation consult with stakeholders on an ongoing basis to help the agencies analyze and respond to any workforce changes.
Examples of Technologies for Self-Driving Trucks
Figure showing a truck with LIDAR sensors, GPS, cameras, accelerometers and radar
Highlights
What GAO Found
Automated trucks, including self-driving trucks, are being developed for long-haul trucking operations, but widespread commercial deployment is likely years or decades away, according to stakeholders. Most technology developers said they were developing trucks that can travel without drivers for part of a route, and some stakeholders said such trucks may become available within 5 to 10 years. Various technologies, including sensors and cameras, could help guide a truck capable of driving itself (see figure). However, the adoption of this technology depends on factors such as technological limitations and public acceptance.
Examples of Automated Vehicle Technologies for Commercial Trucks
Stakeholders GAO interviewed predicted two main scenarios for how the adoption of automated trucks could affect the trucking workforce, which varied depending on the future role of drivers or operators. Technology developers, among others, described one scenario in which self-driving trucks are used on highway portions of long-haul trips. Stakeholders noted this scenario would likely reduce the number of long-haul truck drivers needed and could decrease wages because of lower demand for such drivers. In contrast, groups representing truck drivers, among others, predicted a scenario in which a truck would have an operator at all times for complex driving and other non-driving tasks, and the number of drivers or operators would not change as significantly. However, stakeholders lacked consensus on the potential effect this scenario might have on wages and driver retention. Most stakeholders said automated trucking could create new jobs, and that any workforce effects would take time—providing an opportunity for a federal response, such as any needed policy changes.
The Department of Transportation (DOT) is consulting with the Department of Labor (DOL) to conduct a congressionally-directed analysis of the workforce impacts of automated trucking by March 2019. As part of this analysis, DOT and DOL have coordinated to conduct stakeholder outreach. However, they do not currently plan to convene stakeholders on a regular basis to gather information because they have focused on completing this analysis first. Continuing to convene stakeholders could provide the agencies foresight about policy changes that may be needed to prepare for any workforce effects as this technology evolves.
Why GAO Did This Study
Automated vehicle technology may eventually make commercial trucking more efficient and safer, but also has the potential to change the employment landscape for nearly 1.9 million heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, among others. GAO was asked to examine the potential workforce effects of automated trucking.
This report addresses (1) what is known about how and when automated vehicle technologies could affect commercial trucks; (2) what is known about how the adoption of automated trucks could affect the commercial trucking workforce; and (3) the extent to which DOT and DOL are preparing to assist drivers whose jobs may be affected. GAO reviewed research since 2014 on automated trucking technology, viewed demonstrations of this technology, and analyzed federal data on the truck driver workforce. GAO also interviewed officials from DOT and DOL, as well as a range of stakeholders, including technology developers, companies operating their own trucking fleets, truck driver training schools, truck driver associations, and workforce development boards.
Recommendations
GAO is making four recommendations, including that both DOT and DOL should continue to convene key stakeholders as the automated trucking technology evolves to help the agencies analyze and respond to potential workforce changes that may result. DOT and DOL agreed with the recommendations.
Recommendations for Executive Action
| Agency Affected | Recommendation | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Department of Labor | The Secretary of Labor should collaborate with the Secretary of Transportation to continue to convene key groups of stakeholders to gather information on potential workforce changes that may result from automated trucking as the technology evolves, including analyzing needed skills and identifying any information or data gaps, to allow the agencies to fully consider how to respond to any changes. These stakeholders could include, for example, representatives of other relevant federal agencies, technology developers, the trucking industry, organizations that represent truck drivers, truck driver training schools, state workforce agencies, and local workforce development boards. (Recommendation 1) |
The Department of Labor agreed with this recommendation. In June 2019, DOL participated in a stakeholder event with the Department of Transportation (DOT) that shared information about the potential workforce effects of automated trucking. DOL contributed to DOT's January 2021 report to Congress entitled, "Driving Automation Systems in Long-Haul Trucking and Bus Transit: Preliminary Analysis of Potential Workforce Impacts." The report has information on potential workforce changes that may result from automated trucking as the technology evolves, and identifies skills needed and information or data gaps. In February 2022, DOL and DOT signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to promote cooperative efforts between the departments, and DOL officials said that DOL and DOT have an ongoing relationship related to workforce trends. DOL officials noted numerous examples of other partnerships that address ongoing needs in the trucking industry, as well as joint participation in conferences and other meetings with national, state, and local partners. For example, DOT participated in the 2023 WIOA Visioning Convening held in Washington, D.C. in May that focused on the future of the workforce and the collaboration expected at the national, state, and local level. Officials said these partnerships help DOL stay aware and respond to workforce needs and skill demand changes as they arise in the trucking industry.
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| Department of Transportation | The Secretary of Transportation should collaborate with the Secretary of Labor to continue to convene key groups of stakeholders to gather information on potential workforce changes that may result from automated trucking as the technology evolves, including analyzing needed skills and identifying any information or data gaps, to allow the agencies to fully consider how to respond to any changes. These stakeholders could include, for example, representatives of other relevant federal agencies, technology developers, the trucking industry, organizations that represent truck drivers, truck driver training schools, state workforce agencies, and local workforce development boards. (Recommendation 2) |
The Department of Transportation (DOT) agreed with this recommendation. In January 2021, DOT publicly released a comprehensive report to Congress: "Driving Automation Systems in Long-Haul Trucking and Bus Transit: Preliminary Analysis of Potential Workforce Impacts." The report provides information on the potential effects of automated trucking, such as potential regulatory effects, on the workforce as technology evolves. In accordance with the report's legislative mandate in FY 2018 DOT appropriations language, DOT consulted with the Department of Labor (DOL), as well as the Departments of Commerce and Health and Human Services, which worked with DOT to convene stakeholders and contributed material for and reviewed draft versions of this report. DOT and DOL signed a February 2022 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to promote cooperative efforts between the departments. The MOU states that, where possible, the memorandum will support both departments' efforts to engage stakeholders and develop strategic partnerships with organizations. In December 2022, DOT stated that it intends to leverage its partnership with DOL, including the MOU, as it establishes a policy framework for the safe deployment of automated vehicles, including in the trucking sector.
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| Department of Transportation | The Secretary of Transportation should consult with the Secretary of Labor to further analyze the potential effects of automated trucking technology on drivers to inform potential workforce-related regulatory changes, such as the requirements to obtain a commercial driver's license or hours of service requirements (e.g., the maximum hours commercial truck drivers are permitted to work). This could include leveraging the analysis described by the Explanatory Statement accompanying the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2018 once it is complete, as well as information the department obtains from stakeholders as the technology evolves. (Recommendation 3) |
DOT agreed with this recommendation. In January 2021, DOT publicly released a comprehensive report to Congress: "Driving Automation Systems in Long-Haul Trucking and Bus Transit: Preliminary Analysis of Potential Workforce Impacts." The report provides information on the potential effects of automated trucking, such as potential regulatory effects, on the workforce as technology evolves. In accordance with the report's legislative mandate in FY 2018 DOT appropriations language, DOT consulted with the Department of Labor (DOL), as well as the Departments of Commerce and Health and Human Services, contributed material for and reviewed draft versions of this report. In February 2022, DOT and DOL signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to promote cooperative efforts between the departments. DOT stated that it intends to leverage its partnership with DOL, including the MOU, to further examine the potential effects of automated trucking technology on drivers to inform potential workforce-related regulatory changes, among other things. The MOU states that, where possible, the memorandum will support both departments' efforts to engage stakeholders and develop strategic partnerships with organizations.
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| Department of Labor | The Secretary of Labor should consult with the Secretary of Transportation to share information with key stakeholders on the potential effects of automated trucking on the workforce as the technology evolves. These stakeholders could include, for example, representatives of other relevant federal agencies, technology developers, the trucking industry, organizations that represent truck drivers, truck driver training schools, state workforce agencies, and local workforce development boards. (Recommendation 4) |
In June 2020, DOL stated that it had advised the Department of Transportation (DOT) on draft sections of a DOT report on potential workforce impacts of automated trucking. DOL stated that it had advised DOT on labor market information sources, DOL and other programs that respond to worker dislocation and economic changes, and evidence on interventions that lead to reemployment. In January 2021, DOT publicly released a comprehensive report to Congress: "Driving Automation Systems in Long-Haul Trucking and Bus Transit: Preliminary Analysis of Potential Workforce Impacts." The report provides information on the potential effects of automated trucking on the workforce as technology evolves. In accordance with the report's legislative mandate in FY 2018 DOT appropriations language, DOL, as well as the Departments of Commerce and Health and Human Services, contributed material for and reviewed draft versions of this report, which is posted on DOL's ETA WorkforceGPS web page.
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