F-35 Sustainment: DOD Needs to Cut Billions in Estimated Costs to Achieve Affordability
Fast Facts
DOD plans to acquire nearly 2,500 F-35 aircraft for about $400 billion. It projects spending another $1.27 trillion to operate and sustain them—an estimate that has steadily increased since 2012.
The military services collectively face tens of billions of dollars in sustainment costs that they project will be unaffordable. For example, the Air Force needs to reduce estimated annual per-plane costs by $3.7 million (47%) by 2036, or costs in that year alone will be $4.4 billion more than it can afford.
We recommended, among other things, that Congress consider making future F-35 acquisitions contingent on progress reducing sustainment costs.
An F-35B Performing a Vertical Landing at Naval Air Station Patuxent in Maryland
Highlights
What GAO Found
F-35 mission capable rates—a measure of the readiness of an aircraft fleet—have recently improved, but still fall short of warfighter requirements. Specifically, from fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2020, the U.S. F-35 fleet's average annual (1) mission capable rate—the percentage of time during which the aircraft can fly and perform one of its tasked missions—improved from 59 to 69 percent; and (2) full mission capable rate—the percentage of time during which the aircraft can perform all of its tasked missions—improved from 32 to 39 percent. Both metrics fall below the services' objectives. For example, in fiscal year 2020 the Air Force F-35A full mission capable rate was 54 percent, versus a 72 percent objective.
Since 2012, F-35 estimated sustainment costs over its 66-year life cycle have increased steadily, from $1.11 trillion to $1.27 trillion, despite efforts to reduce costs. The services face a substantial and growing gap between estimated sustainment costs and affordability constraints—i.e., costs per tail (aircraft) per year that the services project they can afford—totaling about $6 billion in 2036 alone (see fig.). The services will collectively be confronted with tens of billions of dollars in sustainment costs that they project as unaffordable during the program.
Gap between F-35 Affordability Constraints and Estimated Sustainment Costs in 2036
Note: Costs are in constant year 2012 dollars, as that was the year when the F-35 program was most recently re-baselined.
aSteady state years for the F-35 program are defined in each respective service's affordability analysis as: US Air Force/F-35A – 2036-2041; US Marine Corps/F-35B – 2033-2037; US Navy/F-35C – 2036-2043. Steady state refers to the program's peak operating point.
The Air Force needs to reduce estimated costs per tail per year by $3.7 million (or 47 percent) by 2036 or it will incur $4.4 billion in costs beyond what it currently projects it could afford in that year alone. Cost reductions become increasingly difficult as the program grows and matures. However, GAO found that there is no agreed upon approach to achieve the constraints. The F-35 program estimates that it will declare Milestone C—a decision point for moving into full-rate production of the aircraft—sometime in the 2021-2023 time frame. Without assessing cost-reduction efforts and program requirements (such as number of planned aircraft), and developing a plan prior to declaring Milestone C, the Department of Defense (DOD) may continue to invest resources in a program it ultimately cannot afford. Congress's requiring DOD to report on its progress in achieving affordability constraints and making F-35 procurements contingent on DOD's demonstrated progress would enhance DOD's accountability for taking the necessary and appropriate actions to afford sustaining the F-35 fleet.
Why GAO Did This Study
The F-35 aircraft, with its advanced capabilities, represents a growing portion of DOD's tactical aviation fleet—with about 400 of the aircraft fielded. DOD plans to procure nearly 2,500 F-35s at an estimated life cycle costs of the program exceeding $1.7 trillion—with $1.3 trillion of those costs being associated with operating and sustaining the aircraft.
A House Report accompanying the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020 included a provision for GAO to review F-35 sustainment efforts. This report, among other things, assesses the extent to which (1) the F-35 has met warfighter-required mission capable rates; and (2) DOD has reduced the F-35's estimated life cycle sustainment costs and made progress in meeting its affordability constraints. GAO reviewed program documentation, analyzed performance and cost data, collected data from F-35 locations, and interviewed officials.
Recommendations
Congress should consider (1) requiring DOD to report annually on progress in achieving the affordability constraints, and (2) making F-35 aircraft procurement decisions contingent on DOD's progress in achieving these constraints. GAO is making four recommendations to DOD, including assessing cost reduction efforts and F-35 program requirements, and developing a plan to afford to sustain the future F-35 fleet. DOD partially concurred stating it will work to meet the intent of the recommendations in an expeditious manner. GAO continues to believe DOD should address the recommendations prior to declaring Milestone C.
Matter for Congressional Consideration
| Matter | Status | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Congress should consider requiring the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, in consultation with the services and the F-35 Joint Program Office, to report annually on progress in achieving the services' affordability constraints, including the actions taken and planned to reduce sustainment costs. (Matter for Consideration 1) | As of February 2024, Congress has not required the Department of Defense to report annually on the progress in achieving the service's affordability constraints. | |
| Congress should consider making future F-35 aircraft procurement decisions contingent on DOD's progress in achieving F-35 sustainment affordability constraints. (Matter for Consideration 2) | In Section 141 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2022, Congress took steps to limit the quantity of F-35s procured by the military services beginning in fiscal year 2029 based on their ability to achieve affordability cost targets. These steps meet the intent of our matter for consideration; therefore, we are closing this action. |
Recommendations for Executive Action
| Agency Affected | Recommendation | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Department of Defense | The Secretary of Defense should ensure that, prior to the Milestone C decision, the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, in consultation with the services and the F-35 Joint Program Office, assess and document DOD's ability to meet the services' affordability constraints with existing or planned cost-reduction efforts. (Recommendation 1) |
DOD agreed with the substance of the recommendation and is currently taking actions to address the recommendation. As of February 2024, DOD officials told us that per a fiscal year 2022 National Defense Authorization Act requirement, the military services are actively determining their updated fiscal year 2027 sustainment affordability constraints. Details regarding the approach to meeting those constraints will be documented in a future update to the F-35 Life Cycle Sustainment Plan. Furthermore, according to these same officials, the F-35 Joint Program Office has implemented a War on Cost initiative to help reduce costs while using the military services' updated fiscal year 2027 sustainment affordability constraints. Until we are able to review the updated F-35 Life Cycle Sustainment Plan and determine the extent to which DOD has documented its ability to meet the military services' affordability constraints, and review the progress made from the F-35 Joint Program Office's War on Cost initiative, this recommendation will remain open.
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| Department of Defense | The Secretary of Defense should ensure that, prior to the Milestone C decision, the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, in consultation with the services and the F-35 Joint Program Office, assess and document changes in service-related program requirements (e.g., the number of aircraft purchases and flying hours) to achieve cost-reductions. (Recommendation 2) |
DOD agreed with the substance of the recommendation. As of February 2024, DOD officials told us that as part of their respective fiscal year 2023 budget submissions, the Department of the Air Force and Department of the Navy conducted detailed reviews of their planned future F-35 aircraft purchases and flying hours. These reviews were also reflected in the military services' updated F-35 beddown plans and subsequent budget submissions. According to these same officials, DOD will work with GAO to provide materials documenting the analyses performed by the military services related to future aircraft purchases and flying hours, and how the analyses impacted program budgets. Until we are able to receive, review and assess these analyses, this recommendation will remain open.
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| Department of Defense | The Secretary of Defense should ensure that, prior to the Milestone C decision, the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, in consultation with the services and the F-35 Joint Program Office, develop and document a program-wide plan for achieving affordability constraints with detailed actions tied to milestones and resources. (Recommendation 3) |
DOD agreed with the substance of the recommendation and is currently taking actions to address the recommendation. As of February 2024, DOD officials told us that the F-35 Joint Program Office has implemented a War on Cost initiative that is revising a strategy for addressing affordability concerns and helping to meet the military services' updated sustainment affordability constraints. Specifically, according to these officials, the initiative will focus on cost reduction initiatives, timelines, resource requirements, assumptions, and risks against the military services' updated affordability constraints. Until we are able to review and assess any specific planning- or action-related documentation from the F-35 Joint Program Office's War on Cost initiative, this recommendation will remain open.
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| Department of Defense | The Secretary of Defense should ensure that, prior to the Milestone C decision, the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, in consultation with the services and the F-35 Joint Program Office, develop and document a risk-management approach for addressing potential challenges or making adjustments in order to achieve affordability objectives. (Recommendation 4) |
DOD agreed with the substance of the recommendation. As of February 2024, DOD officials told us that the F-35 Joint Program Office has implemented a War on Cost initiative that is revising the strategy for addressing affordability concerns and helping to meet the military services' updated sustainment affordability constraints. According to these officials, once this strategy is updated to reflect the military services' updated affordability constraints, the F-35 program's Joint Risk Management Plan will be reviewed and revised as appropriate. Until these actions are taken and a risk-management approach has been developed and documented, this recommendation will remain open.
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