Earthquakes: Progress Made to Implement Early Warning System, but Actions Needed to Improve Program Management
Fast Facts
We reviewed the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Hazards Program, which seeks to reduce the threats posed by earthquakes and related perils such as tsunamis.
A flat budget for most hazard reduction programs has meant vacancies and reduced USGS's ability, for example, to assess hazards and conduct research, stakeholders said
USGS lacks a strategic plan that spells out the resources needed to meet program goals
Its implementation of ShakeAlert, a system designed to warn about imminent strong shaking, could be improved with better activity tracking, timelines, goals, and more
Our 9 recommendations address these and other issues.
Damage from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in California
Highlights
What GAO Found
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), through its Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP), has made several efforts to identify the dangers from earthquakes, such as tsunamis and landslides, to inform the public and help decision-makers ensure public safety and mitigate losses. For example, USGS publishes national seismic hazard maps, which are used to strengthen building codes throughout the nation. USGS officials, state geologists, and other stakeholders GAO interviewed stated that the program's capacity to meet its mission has been impeded by flat discretionary resources for its core capabilities, such as conducting applied science research or urban hazard assessments.
In response, USGS implemented cost-cutting and cost-saving actions to meet EHP's mission that are consistent with some but not all leading practices for strategic planning, performance measurement, and human capital planning identified in past GAO work. For example, USGS lacks a strategic plan that, among other things, identifies the resources needed to achieve the EHP's mission and goals for all major functions of the EHP, such as conducting applied earthquake science research or urban hazard assessments. Further, USGS has not conducted an analysis of staffing needs consistent with leading practices for effective strategic workforce planning principles, such an analysis could include succession planning and a data-driven assessment of its needs for critical skills and competencies. By developing a strategic plan that identifies the strategies, priorities, and resources needed to reach these goals and conducting a staffing gap analysis, USGS can better ensure it has well-thought-out strategies to achieve results-oriented goals with Congress understanding the tradeoffs USGS made in applying its resources toward its goals.
USGS has made progress implementing seismic stations; however, some challenges remain to fully implement the ShakeAlert system. GAO found that USGS had not followed best practices in establishing schedules, milestones, and timeframes for its ShakeAlert implementation, and has not completed its plan for coordinating outreach with stakeholders. By developing schedules and milestones, USGS will be able to track completion of key activities that impact the overall cost of ShakeAlert. By updating and completing its ShakeAlert outreach plan, USGS can better ensure all stakeholders have a shared understanding of how to communicate and educate the public on the ShakeAlert system.
Engineers Installing an Earthquake Early Warning Seismic Station on Mt. St. Helens
Why GAO Did This Study
Earthquakes and related hazards are a significant threat to people and infrastructure in the U.S. For instance, magnitude 6.4 and 7.1 earthquakes centered west of Searles Valley in California, struck in July 2019, causing over $5 billion in damage. USGS is the lead federal agency for providing earthquake monitoring and notification. USGS began implementing ShakeAlert, its earthquake early warning system, in California, Oregon, and Washington State in 2012. GAO was asked to assess, among other things, USGS efforts to identify earthquake hazards. This report addresses, among other things, (1) USGS actions to identify earthquake hazards, (2) the extent USGS actions to achieve its earthquake hazard mission meet leading practices; and (3) what progress USGS and its partners have made implementing ShakeAlert. GAO evaluated agency guidance and other planning documents, such as USGS's ShakeAlert implementation plans; assessed its ShakeAlert cost estimate; conducted site visits to selected cities; and interviewed federal and state officials, among others.
Recommendations
GAO is making 7 recommendations, including that USGS develop a strategic plan, including measures, and conduct a staffing gap analysis for the EHP that identifies the resources needed to achieve its mission and goals; follow best practices for a comprehensive ShakeAlert cost estimate; and complete the stakeholder outreach plan for its earthquake early warning system. USGS generally concurred with GAO's recommendations.
Recommendations for Executive Action
| Agency Affected | Recommendation | Status |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Geological Survey | The Director of USGS should develop a strategic plan for the Earthquake Hazard Program that articulates the fundamental mission of the entire program, lays out its long-term goals for implementing the plan, and identifies the strategies and resources that are needed to reach these goals. (Recommendation 1) |
DOI concurred that the Director of USGS should develop a strategic plan for the Earthquake Hazard Program (EHP) that articulates the fundamental mission of the entire program, lays out its long-term goals for implementing the plan, and identifies the strategies and resources that are needed to reach these goals. DOI stated that, it is important to distinguish Strategic Planning documents--which are created at the Agency level, and outline Agency responsibilities and progress towards those goals via tracking performance through established measures, in accordance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and the GPRA Modernization Act of 2010 (GPRAMA)--from program- and project-level science planning documents (often also called strategic plans), which describe short- or long-term science goals. In November 2024, USGS publicly released its Decadal Science Strategy for 2024 through 2033. The plan includes six long-term goals and also identifies the strategies and resources necessary to achieve the goals. As this action meets the intent of our recommendation, we have closed it as implemented.
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| U.S. Geological Survey | The Director of USGS should develop performance measures for the strategy to determine whether the Earthquake Hazard Program has achieved the strategy's goals after it has drafted the strategic plan. (Recommendation 2) |
DOI concurred that the Director of USGS should develop performance measures for the strategy to determine whether the Earthquake Hazards Program has achieved the strategy's goals after it has drafted the strategic plan. In June 2024, DOI reported that USGS had developed a single measure for the Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP), and currently reports on it: According to DOI, the measure developed is, "Percentage of progress towards a fully built out Advanced National Seismic System" and is included in DOI's Annual Performance Plans and Reports. In addition, in November 2024, USGS issued its EHP Decadal Science Strategy for 2024 through 2033., which includes six high-priority goals for the program. According to USGS, the EHP will track progress towards achieving the six highest-priority goals identified in the decadal science strategy. As this action meets the intent of our recommendation, we have closed it as implemented.
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| U.S. Geological Survey | The Director of USGS should consult with relevant Congressional committees when developing its strategic plan for EHP. (Recommendation 3) |
DOI concurred that the Director of USGS should consult with relevant Congressional committees when developing its strategic plan for the Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP). In June 2023, USGS reported consulting with Congressional staff at two briefings on June 2, 2023, and November 2, 2023, and provided documentary evidence for these meetings. According to USGS officials, House Science, Space, and Technology Committee staff received an overview of the EHP and its role in the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program at these meetings. As this action meets the intent of our recommendation, it is closed as implemented.
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| U.S. Geological Survey | The Director of USGS should complete a staffing gap analysis for the Earthquake Hazard Program that is clearly linked to the mission and long-term goals of the Natural Hazards Mission Area and Earthquake Hazard Program's strategic plans. (Recommendation 4) |
DOI concurred that the Director of USGS should complete a staffing gap analysis for the Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) that is clearly linked to the mission and long-term goals of the Natural Hazards Mission Area and the program's strategic plans. According to DOI, as part of program's science planning efforts, the Program Office will combine science center staffing plans and identify program-wide needs and overlap of those needs with the strategic directions of the program. In September 2024, USGS completed a staffing gap analysis for the Earthquake Hazards Program. The gap analysis allowed the EHP Program Office to assess the current state of staffing across the entire program and compare it to the desired structure needed to achieve strategic goals, and to identify where there are discrepancies, and to help prioritize hiring and/or structural changes. In addition, USGS provided supporting documentation that EHP will revisit this staffing gap analysis on an annual basis, as part of its regular annual planning processes to prioritize the staffing gaps that are most important to address. Because this action meets the intention of our recommendation, this recommendation is now closed as implemented.
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| U.S. Geological Survey | The Director of USGS should establish a Work Breakdown Structure with identified costs for ShakeAlert consistent with best practices in GAO's cost guide. (Recommendation 5) |
DOI stated that it partially concurred with this recommendation. DOI noted that the ShakeAlert Technical Implementation Plan was based on a detailed internal breakdown of costs in accordance with the Work Breakdown Structure approach. In its technical comments USGS provided additional details on the high-level cost categories. However, the plan did not include a dictionary of terms. In July 2023, USGS created and provided GAO a copy of their dictionary of terms for ShakeAlert's Work Breakdown Structure. As this action meets the intention of our recommendation, it is now closed as implemented.
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| U.S. Geological Survey | The Director of USGS should establish a schedule and milestones for ShakeAlert implementation consistent with best practices in GAO's schedule guide. (Recommendation 6) |
DOI concurred that the Director of USGS should establish a schedule and milestones for ShakeAlert implementation consistent with best practices in GAO's schedule guide. In July 2023, DOI provided us a list of milestones organized by work breakdown structure element for the remainder of system implementation. However, in November 2024, USGS told us they would not implement an integrated master schedule consisting of logically related activities whose forecasted dates are automatically recalculated when activities change, as called for by GAO best practices. USGS reported that the cost of establishing an integrated master schedule did not justify the benefit. Specifically, USGS officials reported that the extra staff time needed to use this software was cost prohibitive. Therefore, this recommendation is partially addressed, and we will continue to monitor its implementation.
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| U.S. Geological Survey | The Director of USGS should update and complete the ShakeAlert Communication, Education, and Outreach Plan to clarify and define roles and responsibilities between USGS, the states, and other communication, education, and outreach stakeholders. (Recommendation 7) |
DOI concurred that the Director of USGS should update and complete the ShakeAlert Communication, Education, and Outreach Plan to clarify and define roles and responsibilities between USGS, the states, and other communication, education, and outreach stakeholders. In July, 2023, DOI provided a copy of USGS's 2021-2026 Communication, Education and Outreach Plan for ShakeAlert in June 2022, as well as a distribution list. As this action meets the intent of our recommendation, it is closed as implemented.
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| Department of Commerce | The Secretary of Commerce, jointly with the Secretary of the Interior, should fully implement memorandum of understanding between USGS and NOAA by establishing the Interagency Committee for Program Coordination. (Recommendation 8). |
Commerce concurred with this recommendation. In July 2022, the Department of Commerce provided a copy of the 5-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between NOAA and USGS to coordinate and cooperate in activities involving physical and biological sciences and environmental studies signed on January 5, 2022. Commerce also stated that beginning in September 2022, the Interagency Committee for Program Coordination (ICPC) planned to meet monthly over the following 5 month period to establish enhanced collaboration around several common areas of work including earthquakes and tsunamis. Commerce further stated that the ICPC plans to meet on a quarterly basis after these monthly meetings are complete. As a result of these actions, this recommendation is closed as implemented.
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| Department of the Interior | The Secretary of Interior, jointly with the Secretary of the Commerce, should fully implement memorandum of understanding between USGS and NOAA by establishing the Interagency Committee for Program Coordination. (Recommendation 9). |
The Department of Interior (DOI) concurred with this recommendation. In October 2021, DOI stated that the USGS Office of the Director will work with NOAA to establish teams necessary to promote improved program coordination, as discussed in the USGS-NOAA MOU. In July 2022, DOI provided a copy of the 5-year Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between USGS and NOAA to coordinate and cooperate in activities involving physical and biological sciences and environmental studies signed on January 5, 2022. In addition, they stated that, beginning in September 2022, the Interagency Committee for Program Coordination (ICPC) planned to meet monthly over the following 5 month period to establish enhanced collaboration around several common areas of work including earthquakes and Tsunamis. DOI further stated that the ICPC plans to meet on a quarterly basis after these monthly meetings are complete. As a result of these actions, this recommendation is closed as implemented.
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