Soviet Economy: Assessment of How Well the CIA Has Estimated the Size of the Economy
NSIAD-91-274
Published: Sep 30, 1991. Publicly Released: Oct 30, 1991.
Skip to Highlights
Highlights
Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO reviewed the Central Intelligence Agency's (CIA) methods for estimating the size of the Soviet Union's economy focusing, on: (1) how well the CIA has calculated the Soviet gross national product (GNP) both in rubles and as a percentage of U.S. GNP; and (2) prospects for future improvements in CIA estimates.
Recommendations
Recommendations for Executive Action
| Agency Affected | Recommendation | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Central Intelligence Agency | If CIA continues its GNP estimating work, the Director, CIA, should direct the CIA task force to address the key research issues affecting the Agency's Soviet GNP estimates, to the extent that it has not already planned to do so. |
The Soviet Union no longer exists.
|
| Central Intelligence Agency | If the conditions in the Soviet Union necessitate that CIA continue to estimate Soviet GNP, the Director, CIA, should present the CIA comparison estimate as a range rather than a single point estimate, and explain the criteria and methodology used to calculate the range. |
The Soviet Union no longer exists.
|
| Central Intelligence Agency | If conditions in the Soviet Union necessitate that CIA continue to estimate Soviet GNP, the Director, CIA, should collect Soviet price data to recalculate purchasing power ratios as soon as Soviet economic conditions allow, unless CIA chooses to adopt the results of other comparison efforts, such as the ongoing United Nations-sponsored international comparison of Soviet GNP. |
The Soviet Union no longer exists.
|
Full Report
Topics
Comparative analysisData collectionEconometric modelingEconomic analysisEconomic indicatorsEconomic policiesEvaluation methodsForeign currencyGross national productStatistical data