This is the accessible text file for GAO report number GAO-10-1037R 
entitled 'Office of the Federal Detention Trustee's (OFDT) Cost 
Estimation Methods Reflect Features of Best Practices, but Processes 
Could be Enhanced' which was released on September 30, 2010. 

This text file was formatted by the U.S. Government Accountability 
Office (GAO) to be accessible to users with visual impairments, as 
part of a longer term project to improve GAO products' accessibility. 
Every attempt has been made to maintain the structural and data 
integrity of the original printed product. Accessibility features, 
such as text descriptions of tables, consecutively numbered footnotes 
placed at the end of the file, and the text of agency comment letters, 
are provided but may not exactly duplicate the presentation or format 
of the printed version. The portable document format (PDF) file is an 
exact electronic replica of the printed version. We welcome your 
feedback. Please E-mail your comments regarding the contents or 
accessibility features of this document to Webmaster@gao.gov. 

This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright 
protection in the United States. It may be reproduced and distributed 
in its entirety without further permission from GAO. Because this work 
may contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the 
copyright holder may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this 
material separately. 

GAO-10-1037R: 

United States Government Accountability Office: 
Washington, DC 20548: 

September 30, 2010: 

The Honorable Barbara Mikulski:
Chairwoman:
The Honorable Richard Shelby:
Ranking Member:
Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies:
Committee on Appropriations:
U.S. Senate: 

The Honorable Alan Mollohan:
Chairman:
The Honorable Frank R. Wolf:
Ranking Member:
Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies:
Committee on Appropriations:
House of Representatives: 

Subject: Office of the Federal Detention Trustee's (OFDT) Cost 
Estimation Methods Reflect Features of Best Practices, but Processes 
Could be Enhanced: 

This letter formally transmits a summary of an oral briefing we gave 
on August 30, 2010 and subsequent agency comments (see enclosure). We 
gave this briefing in response to the Conference Report accompanying 
the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2010 (H.R. Rep. No. 111-366, at 
662 (2009) (Conf. Rep.)), which directed us to evaluate the methods 
the Office of the Federal Detention Trustee (OFDT) uses to project the 
federal detainee population and the per diem rates OFDT pays for 
detention services, as well as other factors that are translated into 
OFDT's annual budget request. In conducting this work, we analyzed 
OFDT's documentation of its detainee population and cost estimation 
model, compared OFDT's projections in the President's budget 
submission with actual values of detainee population and costs, and 
interviewed OFDT and Department of Justice (DOJ) officials to (1) 
assess how OFDT develops its detainee population and cost estimates; 
(2) determine the extent to which OFDT follows best practices for 
developing high-quality cost estimates; and (3) determine the reasons 
why OFDT required funds in addition to its annual appropriation in 
fiscal years 2005, 2008, and 2009. 

In summary, OFDT develops its annual budget request for DOJ using 
three general steps: (1) estimating cost increases needed to maintain 
current service levels, (2) projecting the changes in the detainee 
population, and (3) estimating the costs associated with detainee 
population and other program changes. 

OFDT's process for estimating the federal detainee population and 
costs reflects some of the features of GAO's best practices for cost 
estimation, but OFDT has not adopted enough of the practices to meet 
the four characteristics that we associate with high-quality cost 
estimates. Specifically, we determined that OFDT's cost estimation 
processes substantially met the features that characterize accurate 
and comprehensive cost estimates and partially met the features that 
characterize well-documented and credible cost estimates. OFDT 
documents the purpose, formulas, and data sources behind its cost 
estimates, but many of the technical aspects of OFDT's cost estimation 
model are fully understood only by the individual who runs the model. 
Further, the President's annual budget request to Congress for OFDT 
has begun to include estimates of how an increase in the number of 
individuals charged with drug, weapons, or immigration offenses may 
affect program costs, but, as a best practice, OFDT also could perform 
analyses that account for the risks and uncertainties in the model's 
assumptions and estimates. 

OFDT and DOJ officials attributed OFDT's need for additional funding 
to several factors, including unanticipated increases in the detainee 
population, higher per diem rates resulting from limited available 
detention bed space, and limited financial reserves at the beginning 
of the fiscal year. More specifically, law enforcement initiatives 
related to immigration have significantly increased the total detainee 
population. OFDT officials stated that it is difficult to incorporate 
such initiatives into its detainee population model because OFDT, as 
part of the federal budget process, must submit its projections for a 
fiscal year 18-24 months before that fiscal year and the law 
enforcement initiative begin. In addition, since OFDT has limited 
flexibility in how it spends its funds and its annual costs exceed $1 
billion, even a small difference between projected and actual costs 
could result in OFDT facing costs that exceed its appropriated funds 
by tens of millions of dollars. For additional information on the 
results of our work, see slides 12 through 15 in the enclosure. 

As a result of our findings, we are recommending that OFDT improve its 
documentation of the calculations it uses in its detention population 
and cost estimation model. We are also recommending that OFDT quantify 
the extent to which costs could vary due to the inherent risks in key 
assumptions, data inputs, and other factors. 

In commenting on a draft of this briefing, the Department of Justice 
concurred with our recommendations and provided technical comments 
that we incorporated where appropriate. 

We are sending copies of this report to the appropriate congressional 
committees. We are also sending copies to the Attorney General of the 
United States, as well as the Federal Detention Trustee. This report 
will be available at no charge on our Web site at [hyperlink, 
http://www.gao.gov]. Should you or your staff have questions 
concerning this report, please contact me at (202) 512-8777 or 
MaurerD@gao.gov. Contact points for our Offices of Congressional 
Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the last page of this 
report. Key contributors to this report were Joy Gambino, Assistant 
Director; Karen Richey, Assistant Director; Daren Sweeney, Senior 
Analyst; Edith Sohna, Senior Analyst; Pedro Almoguera, Senior 
Economist; and Janet Temko, Senior Attorney. Michele Fejfar, Adam 
Vogt, and Melissa Wolf provided additional technical assistance. 

Signed by: 

David C. Maurer:
Director, Homeland Security and Justice: 

Enclosure: 

[End of section] 

Enclosure: 

Briefing on the Office of Federal Detention Trustee's Methods for 
Estimating Costs: 

Prepared for the Senate and House Appropriations Committees: 

Subcommittees on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies: 

Briefing Overview: 
* Introduction; 
* Objectives, Scope, and Methodology; 
* Results in Brief; 
* Background; 
* Findings; 
* Conclusions; 
* Recommendations for Executive Action; 
* Agency Comments; 
* Appendix I. 

Introduction: 

The Office of the Federal Detention Trustee (OFDT) was
established within the Department of Justice (DM) in fiscal year 
2001.[Footnote 1] OFDT's mission is to centrally manage the funds to 
detain individuals charged with federal crimes as they await 
adjudication. 

Previously, DOJ's United States Marshals Service (USMS) managed 
federal detention resources, but with the creation of OFDT, the two 
components now work in tandem—OFDT has
responsibility for the budgeting and USMS maintains the day-to-day 
responsibility for housing its detainees and transporting them to 
court proceedings. 

From 2001 through 2009, the number of detainees under USMS custody 
increased from 37,124 to 58,746 per day. About 45 percent of this 
increase occurred because of a rise in immigration-related arrests 
along the Southwest border of the United States, and one-third of the 
remaining increase resulted from a rise in drug-related charges. 

Reflecting the increase in the number of USMS detainees, OFDT's budget 
for detention services has increased from $775 million in fiscal year 
2003 (the first year OFDT assumed responsibility for managing program 
resources from the USMS) to $1.44 billion in fiscal year 2010. 

Approximately 90 percent of OFDT's program costs result from expenses 
related to USMS detainee housing and subsistence. The majority of 
remaining expenditures support detainee services, such as health care, 
medical guards, and prisoner transportation. 

In certain recent years, OFDT has needed funding in excess of its 
annual appropriation. For example: 

* Fiscal year 2005: OFDT received $184 million in supplemental funding 
from the Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act for Defense, the 
Global War on Terror, and Tsunami Relief, 2005.[Footnote 2] 
* Fiscal year 2008: OFDT received $20 million through a transfer from 
DOJ's Assets Forfeiture Fund.[Footnote 3] 

* Fiscal year 2009: OFDT received $60 million in supplemental funding 
through the Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2009.[Footnote 4] 

[End of section] 

Objectives, Scope, and Methodology: 

Objectives: 

The Conference Report accompanying the Consolidated Appropriations 
Act, 2010, directed us to review OFDT's methods for determining 
resource requirements.[Footnote 5] In response to this mandate, this 
report addresses the following three questions: 

1. How does OFDT develop its detainee population and cost estimates 
when developing its annual budget requests? 

2. To what extent do OFDT's methods for estimating costs and its 
detainee population follow established best practices? 

3. What factors contributed to OFDT's need for funds in excess of its 
appropriation in recent years and what actions, if any, has OFDT taken 
to better account for these factors in its annual budget estimations? 

Scope and Methodology: Objective 1: 

To determine how OFDT estimates its detainee population and its costs 
when developing its annual budget request to DOJ, we: 

* analyzed OFDT documentation, including its detainee population model 
and budget development guidelines to understand the steps OFDT uses to 
estimate detainee population and costs; 

* interviewed cognizant program officials from DOJ's central budget 
office and OFDT's and USMS' budget development offices, to learn about 
OFDT's methods for estimating costs. We also interviewed OFDT's 
Statistician to obtain information on OFDT's methods for estimating 
detainee population increases; and; 

* reviewed the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) and DOJ's 
budget development guidance, including OMB's Circular A-11, to obtain 
information on federal budget formulation standards and the 
requirements OFDT must follow in preparing its annual budget request 
to DOJ.[Footnote 6] 

Scope and Methodology: Objective 2: 

To determine the extent to which OFDT's methods for estimating costs 
and its detainee population model follow established best practices, 
we: 

* analyzed the cost estimates contained in the President's annual budget
submission to Congress for OFDT for fiscal years 2005 through 2009; 

* interviewed OFDT budget officials, including the Assistant Trustee 
for Budget, Finance and Forecasting, to understand how OFDT developed 
its detainee and budget cost estimates; and; 

* compared the description OFDT provided for how it develops its 
detainee projections and cost estimates against the criteria for best 
practices we identified in our Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide: 
Best Practices for Developing and Managing Capital Program Costs. 
[Footnote 7] 

Scope and Methodology: Objective 3: 
To determine the factors that contributed to OFDT's need for funds in 
excess of its annual appropriations in 2005, 2008, and 2009, and what 
actions, if any, OFDT has taken to better account for these factors in 
its annual budget estimations, we: 

* reviewed OFDT documentation, including reported costs for 
maintaining key operations, and compared these costs to requests for 
funding included in the President s annual budget submission to 
Congress for OFDT for fiscal years 2005 through 2009; 

* interviewed OFDT and DOJ budget development officials to obtain 
their perspectives on the factors contributing to why OFDT's costs in 
recent years have exceeded the funding levels in OFDT's enacted
appropriation. We also asked these officials to discuss what, if any, 
actions OFDT has taken to account for these factors. 

To assess the reliability and consistency of the information we 
obtained about OFDT's methods for estimating costs for its annual 
budget submission, we compared the summary figures contained in the 
President's annual budget submission to Congress for OFDT for fiscal 
years 2005 through 2009 against the more detailed information 
contained in the budget appendices. 

We also interviewed USMS and OFDT officials knowledgeable about 
controls in place to maintain the integrity of data on (1) USMS 
detainees, which OFDT uses in its detainee projection model; and (2) 
annual costs OFDT reported between 2003 and 2009. As a result, we 
determined that the data were sufficiently reliable for the purposes 
of this report. 

To ensure the technical accuracy of the briefing, we provided a draft 
of this briefing to DOJ and OFDT and met with those officials to 
obtain technical comments which we incorporated as appropriate. 

We conducted this performance audit from February 2010 through August 
2010 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing 
standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the work 
to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable 
basis for our findings and conclusions based on our objectives. We 
believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our 
findings and conclusions based on our objectives.[Footnote 8] 

[End of section] 

Results in Brief: 

OFDT develops its annual budget request to DOJ using three general 
steps: (1) estimating cost increases needed to maintain current 
service levels, (2) projecting detainee population changes, and (3) 
estimating the costs associated with detainee population. 

Although OFDT cost estimation methods reflect features of best 
practices, the methods do not employ enough of these practices to meet 
the four characteristics of a high-quality cost estimate. Using GAO's 
guide for developing high-quality cost estimates, we found that OFDT 
has substantially met the features that characterize accurate and 
comprehensive cost estimates, and partially met the features that 
characterize well-documented and credible cost estimates. OFDT could 
improve by: 

* Documenting key assumptions. OFDT acknowledges that its cost 
estimation model is not fully documented and is known only by its 
Statistician. Documenting all steps for developing its cost estimate, 
including which elements are included in each of its major cost 
categories, would better position OFDT to recreate its estimates in 
the event of attrition within its budget office among those who have 
developed initial cost estimates. 

* Providing cost ranges to reflect best and worst cases. OFDT does not 
formally conduct risk analyses, nor does it assess the likelihood of 
costs varying due to outside events. While not required by DOJ, such 
an analysis would provide a more comprehensive picture of risks 
associated with these cost estimates. 

OFDT and DOJ officials attributed the need for additional funds in 
recent years to unanticipated increases in the detainee population in 
2005, limited financial reserves in 2008, and increases in average 
detainee housing and subsistence rates in 2009. Since the detainee 
population is the most significant driver of OFDT's costs, OFDT states 
that it continually adjusts its detainee projection model to better 
predict growth. However, since OFDT has limited flexibility in how it 
spends its funds and its annual costs exceed $1 billion, even a small 
difference between projected and actual costs could result in OFDT 
facing costs that exceed its appropriated funds by tens of millions of 
dollars. 

To improve OFDT's cost estimation process, we are recommending that 
the Attorney General instruct the Federal Detention Trustee to take 
the following two actions: 

1. Improve documentation of calculations used to (a) project the 
number of USMS detainees and (b) estimate program costs. 

2. Quantify the extent to which its costs could vary due to changes in 
key cost assumptions—and submit a risk--adjusted cost estimate, along 
with an associated confidence level and corresponding budget 
documentation—-to DOJ to facilitate decision making. 

[End of section] 

Background - OFDT's mission: 

OFDT's mission is to manage and regulate the federal detention program 
and the Justice Prisoner & Alien Transportation System (JPATS), which 
transports USMS detainees to DOJ's Bureau of Prisons (BOP) facilities 
after they have been convicted and sentenced.[Footnote 9] 

* OFDT is responsible for managing the funds associated with federal 
detention and overseeing federal detention activities, whereas USMS is 
responsible for the custody and movement of USMS detainees. 

* OFDT began developing projections and budget estimates for federal 
detention activities in fiscal year 2003 in preparation for the 
President's Budget submission to Congress for fiscal year 2005. OFDT 
assumed responsibility for JPATS operations from USMS in fiscal year 
2007. 

Background - A detainee's path through the federal detention system: 

Entrance: An individual who is arrested for a federal crime must be 
brought before a court for an initial hearing. After the hearing, the 
individual is either released or remanded to the custody of USMS until 
the case is adjudicated. USMS takes custody and transports him/her to 
a facility for detention, as figure 1 illustrates. 

Detention: USMS houses the majority of its detainees in facilities 
operated by state or local governments and private entities. In fiscal 
year 2009, only about 20 percent of USMS detainees were housed in BOP 
facilities. 

Exit: Once a USMS detainee's case is adjudicated, the individual exits 
detention. If convicted, USMS takes the individual from the detention 
facility to a BOP facility to serve his/her sentence. 

Figure 1: A detainee's path through the federal detention system: 

[Refer to PDF for image: illustration] 

Arrest (e.g. USMS, and ICE): 
Charged with a federal crime; 
Goes to a detention facility (if not released). 

State or local facility: 
Initial court appearance; 
Arraignment; 
Status/Motion hearing; 
Trial/Open plea; 
Sentencing; 
Convicted: BOP facility; or: 
Acquitted. Out of system. 

Private facility: 
Initial court appearance; 
Arraignment; 
Status/Motion hearing; 
Trial/Open plea; 
Sentencing; 
Convicted: BOP facility; or: 
Acquitted. Out of system. 

BOP facility: 
Initial court appearance; 
Arraignment; 
Status/Motion hearing; 
Trial/Open plea; 
Sentencing; 
Convicted: BOP facility; or: 
Acquitted. Out of system. 

Source: GAO analysis of ODFT data; Art Explosion (clipart). 

Note: Pursuant to the Bail Reform Act of 1984, a person charged with a 
federal crime must appear before a judicial officer who is required to 
issue an order either releasing or detaining that person pending 
trial. 18 U.S.C. § 3141. The person may be released on personal 
recognizance or subject to other conditions. 18 U.S.C. § 3142. 

[End of figure] 

Background - OFDT's payments for use of detention facilities, by 
facility type: 

BOP facilities: OFDT does not pay BOP for use of its detention 
facilities, as BOP recovers any USMS detention-related costs for USMS 
detainees through its annual appropriation. 

State and local government facilities: OFDT pays state and local 
governments for housing and subsistence based on per diem rates—the 
rate for housing one detainee for 1 day in detention—that are 
negotiated between the facility and USMS, with OFDT's final approval. 
The rates are established through an Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) 
and cover housing, subsistence, and a few other costs, such as those 
for medical care provided at the facility. 

Private detention facilities: OFDT negotiates with each private 
facility for housing and subsistence, paying a set amount for a 
guaranteed number of beds. 

Background - Federal budget formulation process: 

Through the multiphase federal budget formulation process, OFDT is 
required to identify resource requirements and estimate costs for a 
fiscal year 18-24 months before the fiscal year involved begins. 

OMB guides this process, assisting the President in the submission of 
the Budget of the United States Government—or "the President's Budget"—
to the Congress. 

Key steps follow: 

* OMB issues Circular A-11 to federal agencies, providing detailed 
instructions for submitting budget data and materials, as well as 
criteria for developing budget submissions; 

* DOJ issues to all components, such as OFDT, its annual budget 
development guidelines; 

* OFDT submits its budget request to DOJ's budget staff about a year 
and a half prior to the budget year in question; 

* the Attorney General analyzes all DOJ components' budget requests in 
light of department wide priorities and submits the DOJ annual budget 
submission to OMB; and; 

* OMB assists the President in making final decisions on all agencies' 
budgets and submitting the President's Budget to Congress, which 
aggregates submissions for all of DOJ's components, including OFDT. 

Figure 2 provides a high-level overview of this process. 

Figure 2: Background OFDT's budget formulation process: 

[Refer to PDF for image: illustration] 

1. February-May: Office of the Federal Detention Trustee (OFDT) begins 
the process of planning and formulating its budget request, using OMB 
and OOJ budget development guidelines. The budget will be in effect in 
2 years. 

2. June-August: DOJ budget staff analyzes OFDT's budget request and 
makes recommendations; OFTD appeals DOJ recommendations, if necessary. 
DOJ finalizes recommendations and consolidates DOJ component's budget 
requests for the Attorney General's review. 

3. August: The Attorney General reviews the consolidated request and 
makes a final decision, which is forwarded to OFDT and DOJ components 
to prepare for OMB submission. 

4. September: DOJ submits budget to OMB. 

5. September-November: OMB reviews spending request, spending caps, 
and administration priorities. 

6. Late November: OMB gives cabinet agencies, including DOJ, their 
spending levels and program guidance for the budget--or "passback." 

7. DOJ appeals to OMB for more funding, if necessary, and enters into 
negotiations; final budget request decisions are made. 

8. First week of February: Results in the President's Request to 
Congress. 

Background - OFDT's budget composition: 

OFDT's appropriated budget is comprised of one account: Detention 
Services. This account funds: 

* Housing and Subsistence (which comprises about 90 percent of the 
account); 

* Health Care; 

* Medical Security Guards;[Footnote 10] 

* Ground Transportation; 

* JPATS, representing costs associated with the transport of USMS 
detainees to BOP facilities after they have been convicted and 
sentenced; and; 

* "Other"—-including administrative costs and meals for prisoners, as
necessary, during transportation to medical facilities or courts.
OFDT's enacted fiscal year 2010 appropriation was about $1.4 billion. 
[Footnote 11] 

Background - OFDT's funds in excess of appropriations: 

OFDT assumed responsibility from the USMS for projecting the detainee 
population and estimating program costs in fiscal year 2003 in 
preparation for the fiscal year 2005 budget cycle. Including FY 2005, 
there have been 3 fiscal years in which OFDT has been provided with 
additional funds in excess of its annual appropriation, as shown in 
Table 1. 

Background - OFDT Supplemental Appropriations and Transfers: 
	
Table 1: OFDT Supplemental Appropriations and Transfers (dollars in 
thousands): 

Fiscal year: 2005; 
President's budget submission: $938,810; 
Enacted	appropriation: $885,994; 
Additional funds above enacted appropriation: $184,000; 
Additional funds above enacted appropriation as percentage of OFDT 
enacted budget: 21%. 

Fiscal year: 2006; 
President's budget submission: $1,222,000; 
Enacted	appropriation: $1,177,000; 
Additional funds above enacted appropriation: $0; 
Additional funds above enacted appropriation as percentage of OFDT 
enacted budget: n/a. 

Fiscal year: 2007; 
President's budget submission: $1,332,326; 
Enacted	appropriation: $1,225,816; 
Additional funds above enacted appropriation: $0; 
Additional funds above enacted appropriation as percentage of OFDT 
enacted budget: n/a. 

Fiscal year: 2008; 
President's budget submission: $1,294,226; 
Enacted	appropriation: $1,225,920; 
Additional funds above enacted appropriation: $20,000; 
Additional funds above enacted appropriation as percentage of OFDT 
enacted budget: 2%. 

Fiscal year: 2009; 
President's budget submission: $1,295,319; 
Enacted	appropriation: $1,295,319; 
Additional funds above enacted appropriation: $60,000; 
Additional funds above enacted appropriation as percentage of OFDT 
enacted budget: 5%. 

Sources: 	
FY 2005 – Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act for Defense, the 
Global War on Terror, and Tsunami Relief, 2005, Pub. L. No. 109-13, 
119 Stat. 231, 270. 
FY 2008 – Transfer from another DOJ account—the Assets Forfeiture Fund.	
FY 2009 – Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2009, Pub. L. No. 111-32, 
123 Stat. 1859, 1860 (2009). 

[End of table] 

Background - OFDT challenges: 

According to OFDT officials, there are several factors that complicate 
the management of resources for USMS detention activities: 

OFDT serves all USMS detainees: USMS must accept, house, and transport 
detainees and OFDT is responsible for paying for USMS detainee housing 
and transportation costs. OFDT fulfills this responsibility through 
indefinite-term contracts.[Footnote 12] Thus, USMS is limited in how 
it can reduce services in order to reduce detention costs. According 
to OFDT and USMS officials, while USMS attempts to place detainees in 
lower-cost facilities when possible, it must also satisfy the requests 
of courts to keep detainees within close proximity to the courthouse 
where they will be tried. 

OFDT's costs are subject to several factors beyond OFDT's control: 

* New federal law enforcement initiatives, policy decisions by the 
U.S. Attorneys' Offices on what types of offenses to target, and 
rulings by individual courts affect the number of USMS detainees and 
the length of time they remain in the federal detention system. 

* Availability of space at detention facilities also can significantly 
affect the housing and subsistence rates that OFDT must pay. For 
example, state and local jails are increasingly reserving space for 
their own inmates. As a result, USMS has recently placed a larger 
number of federal detainees in private facilities, which—on average—
have higher rates than state and local facilities. 

Objective 1- How does OFDT estimate its costs and detainee population 
when developing its annual budget submission? 

OFDT estimates costs using three general steps: 

Step 1: OFDT estimates the costs necessary to provide services for the 
current USMS detainee population in the next fiscal year. 

Step 2: OFDT projects USMS detainee population changes for the budget 
year. 

Step 3: OFDT estimates costs to accommodate projected USMS detainee 
population changes for the budget year. 

Objective 1- Estimating costs to maintain current services (Step 1): 

First, OFDT estimates how much more it will cost to provide services 
to the current number of detainees in the next fiscal year. Per 
guidance from DOJ, OFDT begins by using the prior year's enacted 
budget as a baseline, then makes adjustments to this base by 
estimating likely cost increases. 

* To estimate changes in detention services costs, OFDT has developed 
a set of internal cost indices. These indices employ standard 
econometric techniques and reflect methodologies used by the Bureau of 
Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). OFDT 
also applies the Consumer Price Index, the Employment Cost Index for 
State and Local Government Workers, and the Medical Care Service Index 
to make adjustments to the costs of detention-related services, such 
as health care, prisoner transportation, and medical guard services. 
Whenever possible, OFDT will also adjust costs to reflect rate changes 
in specific contracts for detention services. 

* To estimate average annual operating cost increases, OFDT analyzes 
obligations from the prior year, as well as growth in the average 
daily population (ADP) and the number of detainees received by type of 
offense over the past 5 years. 

Objective 1- Projecting population changes (Step 2): 

Second, OFDT uses a statistical model to project increases in the ADP 
in state, local, and private detention facilities. 

* The model uses time series data to predict the primary factors that 
influence ADP: the number of persons arrested for federal offenses and 
booked by the USMS, and the length of time detainees are held in 
detention. 

* In addition, the model uses statistical techniques to track the 
length of time USMS detainees remain in detention and in which 
specific detention facilities they will be placed. OFDT's model 
projects ADP by estimating the number of individuals charged across 
nine different types of offenses in six different geographical 
regions.[Footnote 13] 

* Because the model is based on historical data, it assumes that the 
future will reflect changes of the past. OFDT officials state that 
they attempt to anticipate changes that may not reflect historical 
trends, but they emphasize that many of these changes, such as law 
enforcement initiatives that focus on a certain type of offense, are 
largely beyond OFDT's control and difficult to project. 

* OFDT's model relies primarily on data systems from USMS: the Justice 
Detainee Information System and the Prisoner Tracking System. 

Objective 1- Estimating costs of expected detainee population changes 
(step 3): 

Third, OFDT estimates costs to accommodate projected detainee 
population changes for the budget year. 

* Once the model has projected the ADP by region and detention 
facility, OFDT estimates total costs using the following formula: 

Total Detention Costs = ADP * 365 days in the year * the housing and 
subsistence rate at each facility. 

* OFDT adjusts the costs of detention-related services, such as health 
care and prisoner transportation, to reflect changes in the size of 
the detention population. 

Objective 2 - To what extent do OFDT's methods for estimating its 
costs follow established best practices? 

Using the 12 best practices outlined in our Cost Estimating and 
Assessment Guide (Guide), we found that OFDT has substantially met the 
features that characterize accurate and comprehensive cost estimates, 
and partially met the features that characterize well-documented and 
credible cost estimates. 

* The Guide has identified 12 best practices that are the basis for 
effective cost estimation.[Footnote 14] We associate these practices 
with 4 characteristics: accurate, comprehensive, well-documented, and 
credible. OMB endorsed this guidance as being sufficient for meeting 
most cost estimating requirements, including for budget formulation. 

* If followed correctly, these best practices should result in 
reliable and valid cost estimates that (a) can be easily and clearly 
traced, replicated, and updated; and (b) enable managers to make 
informed decisions. 

Objective 2 - Extent to which OFDT's cost estimation methods reflect 
GAO's cost estimation best practices: 

As table 2 illustrates, although OFDT's cost estimation methods 
reflect features of best practices, the methods do not employ enough 
of these features to meet the four characteristics of a high-quality 
cost estimate. The following provides the definitions we used in 
assessing OFDT's methods for estimating its costs in its annual budget 
submission to DOJ: 

Met — OFDT provided evidence that its methods encompass all of the 
characteristic's features; 

Substantially Met — OFDT provided evidence that its methods encompass 
a large portion of the characteristic's features; 

Partially Met — OFDT provided evidence that its methods encompass 
about half of the characteristic's features; 

Minimally Met — OFDT provided evidence that its methods encompass a 
small portion of the characteristic's features; 

Not Met - OFDT provided no evidence that its methods encompass any of 
the characteristic's features. 

DOJ officials reported being satisfied with OFDT's cost estimation 
methods, noting that they could not identify any area needing 
improvement. 

Table 2: OFDT's Performance in Meeting the Features of Key Cost 
Estimation Characteristics: 

Characteristic: Accurate; 
Feature: The cost estimates should provide for results that are 
unbiased and should not be overly conservative or optimistic. In 
addition, the estimates should be updated regularly to reflect 
material changes in the program, and steps should be taken to minimize 
mathematical mistakes and their significance. Among other things, the 
estimate should be grounded in a historical record of cost estimating 
and actual experiences on comparable programs; 
OFDT performance: Substantially met. 
	
Characteristic: Comprehensive; 
Feature: The cost estimates should include both government and 
contractor costs over the program's full life cycle, from the 
inception of the program through design, development, deployment, and 
operation and maintenance to retirement. They should also provide an 
appropriate level of detail to ensure that cost elements are neither 
omitted nor double counted and include documentation of all cost-
influencing ground rules and assumptions; 
OFDT performance: Substantially met. 

Characteristic: Well-documented; 
Feature: The cost estimates should have clearly defined purposes and 
be supported by documented descriptions of key program or system 
characteristics. Additionally, they should capture in writing such 
things as the source data used and their significance, the 
calculations performed and their results, and the rationale for 
choosing a particular estimating method. Moreover, this information 
should be captured in such a way that the data used to derive the 
estimate can be traced back to, and verified against, their sources. 
The final cost estimate should be reviewed and accepted by management; 
OFDT performance: Partially met. 

Characteristic: Credible; 
Feature: The cost estimates should discuss any limitations in the 
analysis performed due to uncertainty surrounding data or assumptions. 
Further, the estimates' derivation should provide for varying any 
major assumptions and recalculating outcomes based on sensitivity 
analyses, and their associated risks/uncertainty should be disclosed. 
Also, the estimates should be verified based on cross-checks using 
other estimating methods and by comparing the results with independent 
cost estimates; 
OFDT performance: Partially met 

Source: GAO analysis. 

[End of table] 

Objective 2 - OFDT's cost estimating methods substantially met 
characteristics for accuracy: 

Consistent with best practices, OFDT frequently updates its cost 
estimate with actual costs and accounts for program changes in its 
detainee projection model and its cost estimating methods 
substantially met characteristics for accuracy. 

* For example, OFDT updates data on the average detainee population, 
average housing and subsistence rate, and the number of individuals 
charged with specific offenses on a monthly basis. It determines 
differences between budget targets and actual expenditures on almost a 
real-time basis. OFDT also continually adjusts its cost estimation 
methodology to improve the precision and reliability of its estimates. 

* As shown in table 3, OFDT's projections as reflected in the 
President's budget for fiscal years 2005 through 2009 for average 
housing and subsistence rates at facilities operated by private 
companies or state and local governments have been within 3 percent of 
actual average rates each fiscal year. 

* As shown in table 4, OFDT's projections as reflected in the 
President's budget for fiscal years 2008 through 2009 for ADP at 
facilities operated by private companies or state and local 
governments have been within 4 percent of the actual value—an 
improvement in accuracy from prior fiscal years. 

Objective 2 - OFDT's average housing and subsistence rate projections 
have been accurate within 3 percent each year: 			
			
Table 3: Average Projected and Actual Housing and Subsistence Rates 
for USMS Detainees in Facilities Operated by Private Companies or 
State and Local Governments (dollars in millions): 

Fiscal year: 2005; 
Projected In President's Budget: $62.9; 
Actual: $61.9; 
Percentage difference: 1.61%. 

Fiscal year: 2006; 
Projected In President's Budget: $63.4; 
Actual: $62.7; 
Percentage difference: 0.97%. 

Fiscal year: 2007; 
Projected In President's Budget: $64.7; 
Actual: $64.4; 
Percentage difference: 0.53%. 

Fiscal year: 2008; 
Projected In President's Budget: $69.4; 
Actual: $67.5; 
Percentage difference: 2.85%. 

Fiscal year: 2009; 
Projected In President's Budget: $67.4; 
Actual: $69.0; 
Percentage difference: -2.33%. 

Source: GAO analysis of OFDT data and President's Budget. 

[End of table] 

Objective 2 - OFDT's detainee population projections since 2006 have 
been accurate: 

Table 4: Average Projected and Actual USMS Detainee Population in 
Facilities Operated by Private Companies or State and Local 
Governments: 

Fiscal year: 
Projected In President's Budget	Actual	Percentage difference 

Fiscal year: 2005; 
Projected In President's Budget: 37,197; 
Actual: 41,780; 
Percentage difference: -11%. 

Fiscal year: 2006; 
Projected In President's Budget: 48,558; 
Actual: 44,515; 
Percentage difference: 9.08%. 

Fiscal year: 2007; 
Projected In President's Budget: 49,870; 
Actual: 43,813; 
Percentage difference: 13.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2008; 
Projected In President's Budget: 46,050; 
Actual: 44,254; 
Percentage difference: 4.06%. 

Fiscal year: 2009; 
Projected In President's Budget: 46,337; 
Actual: 46,373; 
Percentage difference: -0.08%. 

Source: GAO analysis of OFDT data and President's Budget. 

[End of table] 

Objective 2 - OFDT's cost estimating methods substantially met 
characteristics for accuracy: 

OFDT's cost estimates are based on a methodology that generally 
follows the 12-step best practices for cost estimation; however, high-
quality cost estimates usually fall within a range of possible costs, 
illustrating variance across best and worst case scenarios. 

OFDT does not formally conduct risk-based analyses of how its 
estimates may be affected by the uncertainty of external factors. Such 
factors include: 

* changes in the number of persons arrested and charged by specific 
offense category, 

* evolving law enforcement policies or prosecutorial priorities of 
U.S. Attorneys, 

* the time it takes to process court cases, and, 

* BOP's capacity to accept detainees once they have been sentenced to 
federal facilities. 

Objective 2 - OFDT's cost estimating methods substantially met 
characteristics for accuracy: 

An analysis that considers these uncertainties would indicate the 
chances that actual costs could differ from the cost estimate. It 
would also provide a range of how high or low costs could be, 
depending on events. 

Since an uncertainty analysis provides a range of costs that span best 
and worst case spreads, best practice suggests that it is better for 
decision makers to know the range of potential costs that surround an 
estimate and the reasons that drive the range rather than just having 
a point estimate from which to make their decision. 

While not required by DOJ, such a risk-based analysis would provide a 
more comprehensive picture of likely costs and the confidence levels 
associated with any estimate. 

Objective 2 - OFDT's cost estimating methods substantially met 
characteristics for being comprehensive: 

OFDT relies on current and prior years' actual costs to ensure that 
each year's cost estimate neither double-counts nor omits costs. OFDT 
investigates any anomalies between its budget requests to DOJ and 
actual expenditures to identify estimation problems that can be 
corrected in the current year's budget formulation, and its cost 
estimating methods substantially met characteristics for being 
comprehensive. 

* However, OFDT does not provide a standardized dictionary that 
defines each of the cost elements that comprise its major cost 
categories. Defining each cost element would allow OFDT to track 
specific cost elements and better identify when major cost categories 
may run higher than anticipated. 

* OFDT's cost estimation model contains many assumptions. For 
instance, the model assumes that historical trends are good predictors 
of future events. The model also makes assumptions about increases in 
housing and subsistence rates and how inflation will affect cost items 
such as health and transportation services. However, OFDT does not 
assess the risks associated with each of these assumptions. Such an 
assessment of these risks would provide a level of confidence 
associated with its cost estimates. 

Objective 2 - OFDT's cost estimating methods partially met 
characteristics for being well-documented: 

Consistent with best practices, OFDT clearly defined the purpose of 
its cost estimates, and its calculations and results partially met 
characteristics for being well-documented. 

* We reviewed the President's Budget for OFDT, as well as the 
associated detainee population model, and found that OFDT officials 
had documented the formulas they used to calculate cost elements in 
the model. OFDT has also well-documented the data sources used in its 
model and the rationale for the type of estimation method used. 

* However, OFDT officials also acknowledged that some of the more 
technical aspects of OFDT's detainee projection model were fully 
understood only by the individual who ran the model. For example, OFDT 
made changes to its model to reflect the greater emphasis being placed 
on arresting and prosecuting individuals charged with immigration 
offenses. However, OFDT could not provide us with a document that 
explained in detail what these changes were. Best practices include 
providing enough detail so that the documentation serves as an audit 
trail to allow for clear tracking of cost estimates over time. 

* Documenting all steps for developing its cost estimate would better 
position OFDT to recreate its estimates in the event of attrition 
within its budget office among those who have developed initial cost 
estimates. 

Objective 2 - OFDT's cost estimating methods partially met 
characteristics for credibility: 

OFDT monitors key changes in detention population and average housing 
and subsistence rates and documents these changes for OFDT leadership, 
and its cost estimating methods partially met characteristics for 
credibility. 

* Consistent with best practices, OFDT has performed sensitivity 
analyses that show how changes in the number of persons charged with 
drug, weapons, or immigration offenses will affect the length of 
detention and thus the average daily population of detainees. OFDT 
presented this analysis for the first time in its fiscal year 2011 
President's Budget. 

* However, OFDT does not perform sensitivity analyses on other 
important cost drivers such as average housing and subsistence rates 
or assumptions that affect the size of the detainee population, such 
as changes in laws or policies. 

* OFDT states that it performs cross-checks and validates its cost 
estimates by using actual costs as benchmarks. However, OFDT did not 
provide us with any specific documents to indicate that it performs 
these actions. 

Objective 3 - What factors contributed to OFDT's need for funds in 
excess of its appropriation in recent years and what actions, if any, 
has OFDT taken to better account for these factors in its annual 
budget estimations? 

In each of the years in which OFDT needed funds in excess of its 
appropriation, OFDT and DOJ officials attributed the primary cause to 
the following: 

In 2005: Unanticipated increases in the detainee population. 

In 2008: Lack of sufficient financial reserves, which resulted from a 
$145 million rescission of unobligated balances at the end of fiscal 
year 2007.[Footnote 15] 

In 2009: Increases in average detainee housing and subsistence rates 
because more detainees were housed in private detention facilities, 
which—on average—tend to have higher rates than state and local 
facilities. 

However, OFDT officials also explained that the following factors 
consistently complicate their modeling in any fiscal year: 

* unpredictable increases in law enforcement activity, particularly 
immigration-related enforcement and arrests by the Department of 
Homeland Security (DHS) at the Southwest Border; 

* the lack of financial reserves at the end of the fiscal year to 
cover any unexpected increases in costs in a subsequent year; and; 

* difficulty quantifying the effect of any single factor, such as 
length of detention, increases in arrests for certain offenses, or 
housing and subsistence cost changes, because the various factors that 
affect costs often occur concurrently. 

Given that the detainee population is the most significant driver of 
OFDT's costs, OFDT states that it has begun to adjust its detainee 
projection model to reflect the greater number of individuals charged 
with immigration offenses. However, because OFDT's costs exceed $1 
billion, even a small difference between projected and actual cost 
drivers, such as the detainee population, could result in OFDT's need 
for funding in excess of its appropriation by tens of millions of 
dollars. 

Objective 3 - Factors contributing to OFDT's need for funds in excess 
of its appropriation: 

Unpredictable Increases in Law Enforcement Activity: 

For example, OFDT states that in fiscal year 2009, a DHS initiative to 
increase immigration enforcement in Southwest Border states, known as 
Operation Streamline, significantly increased the number of 
individuals arrested and charged with immigration offenses above what 
OFDT projected. 

* Between fiscal year 2008 and 2009, 161,720 individuals were charged 
with immigration offenses.[Footnote 16] This total is almost 60 
percent greater than between fiscal year 2006 and fiscal year 2007. 

* In fiscal year 2009, the number of individuals charged with 
immigration offenses accounted for 40 percent of all USMS detainees—
compared to 32 percent in fiscal year 2007. 

Lack of Financial Reserves: 

Both OFDT and DOJ officials stated that, to avoid the need for funding 
in excess of its appropriation, it would benefit OFDT to carry a 
balance at the end of each fiscal year. Officials agreed that a 
carryover balance between $20 million and $30 million would provide 
sufficient cushion to cover unexpected or increased costs in federal 
detention activities for up to 10 days. As shown in Table 5, in each 
year since fiscal year 2005 that OFDT has needed funds in excess of 
its appropriation, its financial balance at the beginning of the 
fiscal year was less than $5 million. For example: 

* OFDT began fiscal year 2008 with a carryover balance from fiscal 
year 2007 of $137.7 million; however, Congress eliminated this 
balance, plus additional money, through a rescission of $145 million. 
[Footnote 17] 

* Additionally, the amount enacted in OFDT's fiscal year 2008 
appropriation was about $69 million less than what the President 
Budget's requested for OFDT. Congress later provided $20 million in 
supplemental funds for fiscal year 2008. 

* OFDT ended fiscal year 2008 with $3.4 million in carryover funds, an 
amount that OFDT officials said was too low to account for the 
increased costs in federal detention activities in fiscal year 2009. 

Table 5: OFDT Expenditures, Financial Reserves at the Start of the 
Fiscal Year, and Funding in Excess of Appropriations (dollars in 
thousands): 

Fiscal year: 2005; 
OFDT expenditures: $1,042,636; 
Financial reserve from prior fiscal year carryover: $4,662; 
Funding received In excess of appropriation: $184,000. 

Fiscal year: 2006; 
OFDT expenditures: $1,126,567; 
Financial reserve from prior fiscal year carryover: $30,207; 
Funding received In excess of appropriation: 0. 

Fiscal year: 2007; 
OFDT expenditures: $1,181,290; 
Financial reserve from prior fiscal year carryover: $85,576; 
Funding received In excess of appropriation: 0. 

Fiscal year: 2008; 
OFDT expenditures: $1,256,753; 
Financial reserve from prior fiscal year carryover: O[A]; 
Funding received In excess of appropriation: $20,000. 

Fiscal year: 2009; 
OFDT expenditures: $1,353,682; 
Financial reserve from prior fiscal year carryover: $3,431; 
Funding received In excess of appropriation: $60,000. 

Source: GAO analysis of OFDT data. 

[A] The actual carryover amount was $137.7 million, but this amount 
was eliminated via a $145 million rescission included in OFDT's fiscal 
year 2008 appropriation. 

[End of table] 

Difficulty Quantifying the Effect of Any Single Factor: 

OFDT and DOJ officials both stated that it is difficult to quantify 
the effect of a specific event or initiative, such as Operation 
Streamline, on OFDT's costs. For instance, 

* A law enforcement official stationed in a location participating in 
Operation Streamline may actually operate in another location and make 
an immigration arrest that is unaffiliated with Operation Streamline. 

* Some individuals arrested and charged under Operation Streamline may 
have been previously charged with other offenses, such as gun or drug-
related crimes. According to an OFDT official, these individuals 
probably would be prosecuted on these charges, rather than for 
immigration offenses. 

Further, detention costs are also affected by the judicial system. For 
instance, a backlog at a court may increase detention time, or a judge 
may request that a detainee be placed at a higher-cost detention 
facility that is closer to the court. 

The Detainee Population Is the Most Significant Cost Driver: 

Most of the increases in OFDT's costs have occurred in its Detainee 
Housing and Subsistence cost category, although other cost categories 
have also experienced significant cost increases within a given year. 

* Detainee housing and subsistence accounted for $82 million of the 
total $97 million increase in OFDT's total program costs in fiscal 
year 2009, and about two-thirds of that rise is directly attributable 
to an increase in the number of detainees that year. About half of the 
remaining increase in total program costs came from prisoner 
transportation, which in fiscal year 2009 rose 35 percent over the 
previous year. 

* Detainee housing and subsistence accounted for $65.6 million of the 
total $75.4 million increase in OFDT's total program costs in fiscal 
year 2008. Over half of the remaining increase in total program costs 
came from the cost category "Other," which included services such as 
meals while prisoners are traveling to judicial proceedings. 

OFDT Is Adjusting Its Model to Better Predict Costs by: 

* Increasing projections for the number of detainees charged with 
immigration offenses. However, because detainees charged with 
immigration offenses tend to be detained on average for half the time 
of detainees who are charged with federal weapons or drug offenses, an 
increase in the number of individuals charged with immigration 
offenses would not necessarily increase the total average daily 
population. The effect on average daily population would depend on 
other factors such as the size of the increase in the number of those 
charged with immigration offenses and the proportion of detainees 
charged with other types of offenses. 

* Using leading indicators. OFDT is now employing variables, such as 
increases in the number of law enforcement personnel or assistant U.S. 
attorneys in a judicial district, as leading indicators of where the 
arrests will be and where detainees will need to be housed in the 
future; however, as noted, law enforcement officials may not always 
operate where they were hired. 

* Monitoring space at state and local facilities. OFDT is now closely 
monitoring the available bed space at state and local detention 
facilities. An increase in the number of state and local inmates has 
diminished the space available for federal detainees at these 
facilities. As a result, OFDT and USMS have begun to use more private 
facilities to house federal detainees. Private facilities tend on 
average to have higher housing and subsistence rates than state and 
local facilities. 

Small Differences between Projections and Actual Figures Can 
Significantly Affect Costs: 

OFDT's budget is approximately $1.4 billion. As a result, even when 
the projections for OFDT in the President's Budget are close to the 
program's actual costs within a few percentage points, the differences 
in dollars are significant: 

* In fiscal year 2009, as shown in table 6, although OFDT's estimates 
in the President's Budget of detainee population and average housing 
and subsistence rate were both within 2.5 percent of the actual 
values, its costs for housing and subsistence were $46.4 million 
higher than appropriated funding. 

* In fiscal year 2008, as shown in table 7, although OFDT's estimates 
in the President's Budget of detainee population and average housing 
and subsistence rate were both within 4 percent of the actual values, 
its costs for housing and subsistence were $35.5 million lower than 
appropriated funding.[Footnote 18] 

Objective 3 - Small percentage differences in estimates result in 
large dollar differences in costs: 

Table 6: Comparison of Projected and Actual Costs, Fiscal Year 2009 
(dollars in thousands): 

Statistic or cost category: Average daily detainee population at 
facilities operated by private companies or state and local 
governments; 
Difference between values projected in President's Budget submission 
and actual values: -0.08%[A]. 

Statistic or cost category: Average housing and subsistence rate at 
facilities operated by private companies or state and local 
governments; 
Difference between values projected in President's Budget submission 
and actual values: -2.33%. 

Statistic or cost category: Housing and subsistence costs; 
Difference between values projected in President's Budget submission 
and actual values: -$46.4 million. 

Source: GAO analysis of OFDT data and President's Budget. 

[A] Negative values denote that OFDT's projection in the President's 
Budget underestimated the actual value. 

[End of table] 

Table 7: Comparison of Projected and Actual Costs, Fiscal Year 2008 
(dollars in thousands): 

Statistic or cost category: Average daily detainee population at 
facilities operated by private companies or state and local 
governments; 
Difference between values projected in President's Budget submission 
and actual values: 4%. 

Statistic or cost category: Average housing and subsistence rate at 
facilities operated by private companies or state and local 
governments; 
Difference between values projected in President's Budget submission 
and actual values: 2.85%. 

Statistic or cost category: Housing and subsistence costs; 
Difference between values projected in President's Budget submission 
and actual values: $35.5 million. 

Source: GAO analysis of OFDT data and President's Budget. 

Note: Positive values denote that OFDTs projection in the President's 
Budget overestimated the actual value. 

[End of table] 

[End of section] 

Conclusions: 

OFDT's methods for estimating costs follow many of GAO's best 
practices and substantially meet the characteristics of accurate and 
comprehensive cost estimates. However, even if OFDT underestimates 
costs by a small percentage, this could mean program costs exceed 
OFDT's appropriations by tens of millions of dollars. OFDT has limited 
ability to cut services, reduce costs, or draw on other accounts in 
response to such unforeseen increases in detention housing and 
subsistence costs because: 

* it is required to cover costs associated with housing and 
transporting all USMS detainees, and; 

* housing and subsistence expenses comprise approximately 90 percent 
of OFDT's costs. 

As a result, OFDT is susceptible to needing more funding to pay for 
unanticipated cost increases. 

To further improve its cost estimation practices, OFDT could: 

* More fully document the assumptions and calculations that it employs 
in its USMS detainee projection model. By improving documentation of 
all steps for developing its cost estimate, OFDT would be better 
positioned to recreate its estimates in the event of attrition within 
its budget office among those who have developed initial cost 
estimates. 

* Conduct an uncertainty analysis to quantify how likely various 
scenarios are to occur. If OFDT provided this information to DOJ, DOJ 
could more fully understand the range of potential costs—and the 
potential need for more funding—if estimating assumptions for key cost 
drivers, such as detainee population growth, do not hold true. 

[End of section] 

Recommendations for Executive Action: 

To improve OFDT's cost estimation process, we are recommending that 
the Attorney General instruct the Federal Detention Trustee to take 
the following two actions: 

1. Improve documentation of calculations used to (a) project the 
number of USMS detainees and (b) estimate program costs. 

2. Quantify the extent to which its costs could vary due to changes in 
key cost assumptions-—and submit a risk-adjusted cost estimate, along 
with an associated confidence level and corresponding budget 
documentation-—to DOJ to facilitate decision making. 

[End of section] 

Agency Comments: 

We provided a draft of these briefing slides to the Department of 
Justice (DOJ), OFDT, and USMS for review and comment. In an e-mail 
received on September 24, 2010, DOJ concurred with the recommendations 
in our report and did not provide written comments to include in this 
report. DOJ also provided technical comments which we incorporated as 
appropriate. 

[End of section] 

Appendix I: GAO's Twelve Step Cost Estimating Practices: 

Initiation and research: 
Your audience, what you are estimating, and why you are estimating it 
are of the utmost importance: 

Define the estimate's purpose; 
Develop the estimating plan. 

Assessment: 
Cost assessment steps are iterative and can be accomplished in varying 
order or concurrently: 

Define the program; 
Obtain the data; 
Determine the estimating structure; 
Identify ground rules and assumptions; 
Develop the point estimate and compare it to an independent cost 
estimate. 

Analysis: 
The confidence in the point or range of the estimate is crucial to the 
decision maker: 

Conduct sensitivity analysis; 
Conduct a risk and uncertainty analysis; 
Document the estimate. 

Presentation: 
Documentation and presentation make or break a cost estimating 
decision outcome: 

Present estimate to management for approval; 
Update the estimate to reflect actual costs/changes. 

Analysis, presentation, and updating the estimate steps can lead to 
repeating previous assessment steps. 

Source: GAO. 

[End of section] 

Footnotes: 

[1] Pub. L. No. 106-553, 114 Stat. 2762, 2762A-52 (2000) 
(appropriating funds to establish a Federal Detention Trustee). 

[2] Pub. L. No. 109-13, 119 Stat. 231, 270 (2005). 

[3] A transfer shifts all or part of the budget authority in one fund 
account to another. DOJ's Assets Forfeiture Fund is an account that 
receives proceeds from assets forfeited and can be used, for example, 
to pay for property seizure and detention costs. 

[4] Pub. L. No. 111-32, 123 Stat. 1859, 1860 (2009). 

[5] H.R. Rep. No. 111-366, at 662 (2009) (Conf. Rep.). 

[6] Office of Management and Budget, Preparation, Submission, and 
Execution of the Budget, Circular No. A-11 (Washington, D.C.:
Executive Office of the President, June 2008). 

[7] GAO, GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide: Best Practices for 
Developing and Managing Capital Program Costs, [hyperlink, 
http://www.gao.gov/products/GA0-09-3SP] (Washington, D.C.: March 2009). 

[8] For more information on our scope and methodology, see slides 32-
35 and 42. 

[9] JPATS transports sentenced prisoners who are in BOP's custody, as 
well as criminal/administrative aliens in the custody of the 
Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) Immigration and Customs 
Enforcement (ICE), to hearings, court appearances, and detention 
facilities. 

[10] Accounts for costs of guarding detainees who obtain medical care 
outside a detention facility. 

[11] Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2010, Pub. L. No. 111-117, 123 
Stat. 3034, 3123 (2009). 

[12] Once a state or local jail receives an OFDT rate review, the jail 
may not request another review for at least 3 years. 

[13] The nine offense categories are: violent crime, property crime, 
drug offenses, weapons offenses, immigration offenses, other new 
offenses, supervision violations, material witness violations, and not 
reported offenses. 

[14] See appendix I for a description of these cost estimating 
practices. 

[15] A rescission is legislation enacted by Congress that cancels the 
availability of budgetary authority previously enacted before the 
authority would otherwise expire. See GAO, A Glossary of Terms Used in 
the Federal Budget Process, GA0-05-7345P (Washington, D.C.: September 
2005). 

[16] A portion of those charged with immigration offenses in fiscal 
year 2008 were detained during fiscal year 2009. 

[17] Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008, Pub. L. No. 110-161, 121 
Stat. 1844,1936 (2007). 

[18] Even though the President's Budget request for OFDT overestimated 
costs in fiscal year 2008, OFDT still experienced the need for 
additional funding to sustain its operations because $145 million was 
rescinded by the fiscal year 2008 appropriations act. 

[End of section] 

GAO's Mission: 

The Government Accountability Office, the audit, evaluation and 
investigative arm of Congress, exists to support Congress in meeting 
its constitutional responsibilities and to help improve the performance 
and accountability of the federal government for the American people. 
GAO examines the use of public funds; evaluates federal programs and 
policies; and provides analyses, recommendations, and other assistance 
to help Congress make informed oversight, policy, and funding 
decisions. GAO's commitment to good government is reflected in its core 
values of accountability, integrity, and reliability. 

Obtaining Copies of GAO Reports and Testimony: 

The fastest and easiest way to obtain copies of GAO documents at no 
cost is through GAO's Web site [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov]. Each 
weekday, GAO posts newly released reports, testimony, and 
correspondence on its Web site. To have GAO e-mail you a list of newly 
posted products every afternoon, go to [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov] 
and select "E-mail Updates." 

Order by Phone: 

The price of each GAO publication reflects GAO’s actual cost of
production and distribution and depends on the number of pages in the
publication and whether the publication is printed in color or black and
white. Pricing and ordering information is posted on GAO’s Web site, 
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/ordering.htm]. 

Place orders by calling (202) 512-6000, toll free (866) 801-7077, or
TDD (202) 512-2537. 

Orders may be paid for using American Express, Discover Card,
MasterCard, Visa, check, or money order. Call for additional 
information. 

To Report Fraud, Waste, and Abuse in Federal Programs: 

Contact: 

Web site: [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/fraudnet/fraudnet.htm]: 
E-mail: fraudnet@gao.gov: 
Automated answering system: (800) 424-5454 or (202) 512-7470: 

Congressional Relations: 

Ralph Dawn, Managing Director, dawnr@gao.gov: 
(202) 512-4400: 
U.S. Government Accountability Office: 
441 G Street NW, Room 7125: 
Washington, D.C. 20548: 

Public Affairs: 

Chuck Young, Managing Director, youngc1@gao.gov: 
(202) 512-4800: 
U.S. Government Accountability Office: 
441 G Street NW, Room 7149: 
Washington, D.C. 20548: