USDA Commodity Forecasts: Inaccuracies Found May Lead to Underestimates of Budget Outlays
PEMD-91-24
Published: Aug 13, 1991. Publicly Released: Sep 20, 1991.
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Highlights
Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO examined the Department of Agriculture's (USDA) long-term commodity forecasts used in the President's budget process, focusing on the: (1) accuracy of those long-term supply and utilization forecasts, referred to as baselines; and (2) effect that forecast inaccuracies could have on outlay estimates in the President's January 1990 budget submission.
Recommendations
Recommendations for Executive Action
| Agency Affected | Recommendation | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Department of Agriculture | The Secretary of Agriculture should specifically direct the World Agricultural Outlook Board to measure and report forecast accuracy of 5-year baselines, as well as develop and report on benchmark forecasts. |
Closed – Implemented
USDA has calculated some measures of forecast accuracy and compared its forecasts with benchmark alternatives. Additional results are expected by the end of 1993.
|
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Topics
Agricultural productionBudget outlaysCommodity marketingErrorsMacroeconomic analysisPresidential budgetsPrice supportsProjectionsStatistical methodsAgricultural commodities