Short-Term Forecasting: Accuracy of USDA's Meat Forecasts and Estimates
PEMD-91-16
Published: May 06, 1991. Publicly Released: May 20, 1991.
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Highlights
Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO examined the accuracy of the Department of Agriculture's (USDA) short-term forecasts and estimates of meat production, prices, and inventories.
Recommendations
Recommendations for Executive Action
| Agency Affected | Recommendation | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Department of Agriculture | To improve meat production and price forecasts and estimates, the Secretary of Agriculture should direct the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WOAB) and NASS to develop a process to more clearly identify, report, and correct bias errors when they occur and to provide better documentation of their procedures and assumptions. |
Closed – Implemented
GAO confirmed that NASS now reports reliability information and it has new manuals explaining its procedures. WAOB has also implemented its comprehensive plan for monitoring and evaluating short-term USDA commodity forecasts.
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Topics
Agricultural productionErrorsLivestock productsMeat packing industryPrice supportsPricing surveysProjectionsReporting requirementsStatistical methodsLivestock