Airline Passenger Protections: More Data and Analysis Needed to Understand Effects of Flight Delays

The Department of Transportation's (DOT) Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) collects and reports on-time performance for the commercial airline industry in order to monitor the performance of the aviation industry and to help consumers make better informed purchasing decisions. In 2011, we reported that rural airports have higher rates of commercial airline delays, cancellations and diversions than larger airports. For example, using data for 2005 to 2010 representing 98 percent of all airline flights, we found that flights from airports in rural communities (communities with less than 50,000 people) are on average about 3.5 times as likely to be canceled or diverted as flights from airports in large metropolitan communities. However, the data reported by BTS does not show a difference in performance among different sizes of airports. We showed that this discrepancy is because only flights by the largest airlines representing about 70 percent of all flights are reported to BTS. Smaller airlines that more often serve small and rural airports are not currently required to report their on-time performance. There are many reasons why smaller airlines may have worse on-time performance including operational restrictions for smaller aircraft and economic incentives for larger mainline airlines to impose delays and cancellations on their smaller regional partners. To improve the information available to DOT and ultimately to consumers, we recommended that DOT collect and publicize more comprehensive on-time performance data to ensure that information on most flights, to airports of all sizes, is included in the BTS' database. We recommended that DOT could accomplish this by, for example, requiring airlines with a smaller percentage of the total domestic scheduled passenger service revenue, or airlines that operate flights for other airlines, to report flight performance information. In May 2014, the Department issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for comment and is expected to issue the final rule in April 2016. In the Notice, DOT proposed increasing the number of airlines required to report on-time performance by lowering the minimum percentage of passenger traffic from 1 percent to 0.5 percent for a reporting airline. Doing so would increase coverage to 94 percent of all passenger enplanements according to the Notice. In making this proposal, DOT credited GAO's 2011 recommendation and noted the benefits that would derive from greater public scrutiny of airline performance and DOT's ability to analyze the source of flight disruptions.

In 2011, GAO reported that long tarmac delays, among other disruptions, are costly for passengers, airlines, and the economy. DOT, in April 2010, implemented a regulation designed to mitigate hardships for airline passengers during long tarmac delays (the tarmac delay rule). Since the rule went into effect, tarmac delays of more than 3 hours have been nearly eliminated, with no delays of more than 4 hours, reducing the hardship for numerous passengers. However, GAO's analysis shows that the rule appears to be associated with an increased number of cancellations for thousands of additional passengers, which is far more than DOT initially predicted, including some who might not have experienced a tarmac delay. Though it is difficult to know how passengers might choose between a long tarmac delay and a cancellation, and what costs and burdens their choices would entail, determining the net benefit to airline passengers resulting from the rule and assessing whether there is a causal relationship between the rule and any changes in flight cancellations will be critical to passengers and airlines. Also, our analysis could only include data from the first summer of the rule's implementation, so using data through the summer of 2011 may yield useful information for policymakers. Moreover, additional information and analysis are needed to fully understand the effects of the tarmac delay rule on passengers. Therefore, GAO recommended that DOT fully assess the impact of the tarmac delay rule, including the relationship between the rule and any increase in cancellations and how they affect passengers. In response, DOT contracted with Econometrica to conduct an independent review of the tarmac delay rule. In January 2014, DOT released the report by Econometrica, which found that the tarmac delay rule has had some beneficial and adverse impacts on passenger welfare since its inception. For example, the report found that the tarmac delay appears to have had an adverse impact on flight cancellations in the summer months of 2011, but that cancellations during the summers of 2010 and 2012 appear to be to have a smaller impact or be non-existent. Further, the report concludes that it is difficult to characterize the overall impact of cancellations and lengthy on-board delays attributable to the tarmac delay rule on passenger welfare. As a result, DOT has more complete information to enhance its understanding of the impact of tarmac delays and flight cancellations.