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Nuclear Forensics: Comprehensive Interagency Plan Needed to Address Human Capital Issues

GAO-09-527R Published: Apr 30, 2009. Publicly Released: Jun 01, 2009.
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Highlights

The detonation of a nuclear weapon or radiological dispersal device (RDD) in the United States or elsewhere would cause decision makers to immediately demand information on the nature of the device--including its design, the materials used to build it, and the materials' source--as well as the identification of the perpetrators. Technical nuclear forensics--the analysis of nuclear or radiological materials that are intercepted or the radioactive debris and prompt output signals (such as gamma rays) produced by a nuclear event--can contribute to the identification of the sources of these materials and the processes used to create them. Analytical techniques developed to determine the nature of nuclear tests can be used if terrorists were to detonate a nuclear device or RDD and radioactive debris samples were recovered (known as "postdetonation" nuclear forensics). Nuclear forensic techniques also could potentially be used to determine the origin of nuclear or radiological materials or devices seized prior to their use in a weapon (known as "predetonation" nuclear forensics). The U.S. government's predetonation nuclear forensics capabilities have been demonstrated in investigations on seized nuclear material from illicit smuggling operations. In addition, it is important to note that nuclear forensics represents a key piece of the overall effort to identify specific perpetrators of a nuclear event, in a process known as attribution. The combination of nuclear forensics conclusions, law enforcement findings (e.g., traditional forensics, such as fingerprint analysis), and intelligence information can be used to attribute an event to specific perpetrators. The departments of Defense (DOD), Energy (DOE), Homeland Security (DHS), and State (State), as well as the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the intelligence community, would play key roles in a nuclear forensics investigation. The specific roles these agencies would play were established in August 2007 through a presidential decision directive. This directive also formally established the National Technical Nuclear Forensics Center (NTNFC) within DHS's Domestic Nuclear Detection Office to coordinate planning, integration, assessment, and stewardship of the U.S. government's nuclear forensics capabilities. NTNFC has chartered a number of interagency groups to guide policy making for the National Technical Nuclear Forensics (NTNF) program and has led the development of key interagency documents such as the NTNF strategic plan. In this context, Congress asked GAO to assess the (1) challenges the U.S. government faces in developing and maintaining a comprehensive nuclear forensics capability and (2) current and future costs associated with the U.S. government's nuclear forensics efforts.

Recommendations

Recommendations for Executive Action

Agency Affected Recommendation Status
Department of Homeland Security To improve the effectiveness of U.S. government efforts to address challenges facing the NTNF program, the Secretary of Homeland Security, working with the Secretaries of Energy, Defense, and State, and the Director of the FBI, should develop a comprehensive interagency plan to address the human capital deficiencies affecting the NTNF program. This plan should include estimates of the long-term demand, from both the U.S. government and private industry, for trained personnel in key disciplines, such as radiochemistry, that support the NTNF program. The plan should be linked with program requirements, address coordination issues with existing federal efforts to promote radiochemistry, and include cost estimates for each aspect of the plan.
Closed – Implemented
Nuclear Forensics and Attribution Act (H.R. 730) required the National Technical Nuclear Forensics (NTNF) program to implement a plan to address the shortage of qualified doctoral-level scientists to work in the program.
Department of Homeland Security To improve the effectiveness of U.S. government efforts to address challenges facing the NTNF program, the Secretary of Homeland Security, working with the Secretaries of Energy, Defense, and State, and the Director of the FBI, should more fully account for the indirect costs borne by DOD, DOE, State, and other agencies that are not currently reflected in the NTNF program budget.
Closed – Implemented
National Technical Nuclear Forensics (NTNF) community completed a bottoms-up effort that helped identify indirect costs; Section 1036 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2010 required a National Strategic Five-Year Plan for nuclear forensics, which resulted in budget formulation that for the first time integrated data from the State Department, Nuclear Materials Information Program, and the Intelligence Community.
Department of Homeland Security To improve the effectiveness of U.S. government efforts to address challenges facing the NTNF program, the Secretary of Homeland Security, working with the Secretaries of Energy, Defense, and State, and the Director of the FBI, should assess the potential impact of projected reductions in the budgets for programs that the agencies rely upon to conduct their nuclear forensics missions and take steps to mitigate any negative impacts.
Closed – Implemented
Section 1036 of the National Defense Authorization Act of 2010 resulted in incorporation of new budget data from agencies not previously integrated into the National Technical Nuclear Forensics (NTNF) program budget, which provided vital information needed to assess the state of the program; the Nuclear Forensics and Attribution Act Public Law 111-140 resulted in development of investment plans and budget information that provided more clarity to the NTNF program budget. To mitigate negative effects of potential budget reductions, the NTNF program is studying and performing work relating to the origin and history of materials throughout the uranium fuel cycle through modeling and simulation, to provide the program more flexibility to reduce costs; a Deputy Secretary level governing body has been set up to do interdepartmental strategic planning to help minimize the impact of potential budget reductions.

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Topics

Budget cutsBudget functionsEmployeesEmployment assistance programsFederal agenciesFuture budget projectionsHuman capitalHuman capital planningInteragency relationsInvestigations by federal agenciesLaboratoriesLaw enforcement agenciesNuclear materialsNuclear weaponsProgram evaluationProgram managementResearch and developmentScientistsStrategic planningProgram implementation