Long-Term Federal Budget Simulations - Spring 2014 Update

Since 1992, GAO has published long-term fiscal simulations showing federal deficits and debt under different sets of policy assumptions. While the timing and pace of growth varies depending on the assumptions used, GAO's simulations illustrate that: (1) A fundamental imbalance between revenue and spending over the long term leads to continuous growth in debt as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), which is unsustainable, (2) Increases in spending are driven by an aging population and rising health care costs, (3) The growing gap between revenue and spending will further limit the federal government's flexibility to address future challenges.