This is the accessible text file for CG Presentation number GAO-11- 617CG entitled 'The Government’s Long-Term Fiscal Challenge: Implications for Federal Agencies' which was released on April 2, 2011. This text file was formatted by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) to be accessible to users with visual impairments, as part of a longer term project to improve GAO products' accessibility. Every attempt has been made to maintain the structural and data integrity of the original printed product. Accessibility features, such as text descriptions of tables, consecutively numbered footnotes placed at the end of the file, and the text of agency comment letters, are provided but may not exactly duplicate the presentation or format of the printed version. The portable document format (PDF) file is an exact electronic replica of the printed version. We welcome your feedback. Please E-mail your comments regarding the contents or accessibility features of this document to Webmaster@gao.gov. This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. It may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without further permission from GAO. Because this work may contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately. The Government’s Long-Term Fiscal Challenge: Implications for Federal Agencies: 9th Annual DHS OCFO Symposium: March 14, 2012: Washington DC: Gene L. Dodaro: Comptroller General of the United States: U.S. Government Accountability Office: GAO-12-617CG: Overview: * Most Recent Experience * Long-Term Structural Challenge: - The Drivers; - Impact of the Budget Control Act (BCA); * Implications for Federal Agencies. Figure: Debt Held by the Public as a Percentage of GDP: 1940—2011: [Refer to PDF for image: vertical bar graph] Percentage of GDP: Fiscal year: 1940: 44.2%; Fiscal year: 1941: 42.3%; Fiscal year: 1942: 47%; Fiscal year: 1943: 70.9%; Fiscal year: 1944: 88.3%; Fiscal year: 1945: 106.2%; Fiscal year: 1946: 108.7%; Fiscal year: 1947: 96.2%; Fiscal year: 1948: 84.3%; Fiscal year: 1949: 79%; Fiscal year: 1950: 80.2%; Fiscal year: 1951: 66.9%; Fiscal year: 1952: 61.6%; Fiscal year: 1953: 58.6%; Fiscal year: 1954: 59.5%; Fiscal year: 1955: 57.2%; Fiscal year: 1956: 52%; Fiscal year: 1957: 48.6%; Fiscal year: 1958: 49.2%; Fiscal year: 1959: 47.9%; Fiscal year: 1960: 45.6%; Fiscal year: 1961: 45%; Fiscal year: 1962: 43.7%; Fiscal year: 1963: 42.4%; Fiscal year: 1964: 40%; Fiscal year: 1965: 37.9%; Fiscal year: 1966: 34.9%; Fiscal year: 1967: 32.9%; Fiscal year: 1968: 33.3%; Fiscal year: 1969: 29.3%; Fiscal year: 1970: 28%; Fiscal year: 1971: 28.1%; Fiscal year: 1972: 27.4%; Fiscal year: 1973: 26%; Fiscal year: 1974: 23.9%; Fiscal year: 1975: 25.3%; Fiscal year: 1976: 27.5%; Fiscal year: 1977: 27.8%; Fiscal year: 1978: 27.4%; Fiscal year: 1979: 25.6%; Fiscal year: 1980: 26.1%; Fiscal year: 1981: 25.8%; Fiscal year: 1982: 28.7%; Fiscal year: 1983: 33.1%; Fiscal year: 1984: 34%; Fiscal year: 1985: 36.4%; Fiscal year: 1986: 39.5%; Fiscal year: 1987: 40.6%; Fiscal year: 1988: 41%; Fiscal year: 1989: 40.6%; Fiscal year: 1990: 42.1%; Fiscal year: 1991: 45.3%; Fiscal year: 1992: 48.1%; Fiscal year: 1993: 49.3%; Fiscal year: 1994: 49.2%; Fiscal year: 1995: 49.1%; Fiscal year: 1996: 48.4%; Fiscal year: 1997: 45.9%; Fiscal year: 1998: 43%; Fiscal year: 1999: 39.4%; Fiscal year: 2000: 34.7%; Fiscal year: 2001: 32.5%; Fiscal year: 2002: 33.6%; Fiscal year: 2003: 35.6%; Fiscal year: 2004: 36.8%; Fiscal year: 2005: 36.9%; Fiscal year: 2006: 36.6%; Fiscal year: 2007: 36.3%; Fiscal year: 2008: 40.5%; Fiscal year: 2009: 54.1%; Fiscal year: 2010: 62.8%; Fiscal year: 2011: 67.7%. Source: OMB. [End of figure] Figure: Recession Affects the Federal Budget: 1980-2011: [Refer to PDF for image: line graph] Percentage of GDP: Period of recession: 1980, Q2, Q3. Fiscal year: 1980; Revenue: 19%; Outlays: 22%. Period of recession: 1981 Q4-1983 Q1. Fiscal year: 1981; Revenue: 20%; Outlays: 22%. Fiscal year: 1982; Revenue: 19%; Outlays: 23%. Fiscal year: 1983; Revenue: 17%; Outlays: 23%. Fiscal year: 1984; Revenue: 17%; Outlays: 22%. Fiscal year: 1985; Revenue: 18%; Outlays: 23%. Fiscal year: 1986; Revenue: 17%; Outlays: 22%. Fiscal year: 1987; Revenue: 18%; Outlays: 22%. Fiscal year: 1988; Revenue: 18%; Outlays: 21%. Fiscal year: 1989; Revenue: 18%; Outlays: 21%. Period of recession: 1990 Q1-1991 Q2. Fiscal year: 1990; Revenue: 18%; Outlays: 22%. Fiscal year: 1991; Revenue: 18%; Outlays: 22%. Fiscal year: 1992; Revenue: 17%; Outlays: 22%. Fiscal year: 1993; Revenue: 18%; Outlays: 21%. Fiscal year: 1994; Revenue: 18%; Outlays: 21%. Fiscal year: 1995; Revenue: 18%; Outlays: 21%. Fiscal year: 1996; Revenue: 19%; Outlays: 20%. Fiscal year: 1997; Revenue: 19%; Outlays: 19%. Fiscal year: 1998; Revenue: 20%; Outlays: 19%. Fiscal year: 1999; Revenue: 20%; Outlays: 18%. Fiscal year: 2000; Revenue: 21%; Outlays: 18%. Period of recession: 201 Q3-202 Q2. Fiscal year: 2001; Revenue: 19%; Outlays: 18%. Fiscal year: 2002; Revenue: 18%; Outlays: 19%. Fiscal year: 2003; Revenue: 16%; Outlays: 20%. Fiscal year: 2004; Revenue: 16%; Outlays: 20%. Fiscal year: 2005; Revenue: 17%; Outlays: 20%. Fiscal year: 2006; Revenue: 18%; Outlays: 20%. Fiscal year: 2007; Revenue: 19%; Outlays: 20%. Period of recession: 2008 Q1-2009 Q3. Fiscal year: 2008; Revenue: 18%; Outlays: 21%. Fiscal year: 2009; Revenue: 15%; Outlays: 25%. Fiscal year: 2010; Revenue: 15%; Outlays: 24%. Fiscal year: 2011; Revenue: 15%; Outlays: 24%. Source: CBO, National Bureau of Economic Research. [End of figure] Figure: GDP: Actual and Potential: [Refer to PDF for image: line graph] Dollars in 2005 millions: 2007Q4; Actual: $13,363.5; Potential: $13,314.1. 2008Q1; Actual: $13,339.2; Potential: $13,393.0. 2008Q2; Actual: $13,359.0; Potential: $13,471.2. 2008Q3; Actual: $13,223.5; Potential: $13,547.1. 2008Q4; Actual: $12,993.7; Potential: $13,619.9. 2009Q1; Actual: $12,832.6; Potential: $13,689.2. 2009Q2; Actual: $12,810.0; Potential: $13,753.1. 2009Q3; Actual: $12,860.8; Potential: $13,813.7. 2009Q4; Actual: $13,019.0; Potential: $13,872.0. 2010Q1; Actual: $13,138.8; Potential: $13,928.2. 2010Q2; Actual: $13,194.9; Potential: $13,985.8. 2010Q3; Actual: $13,278.5; Potential: $14,044.7. 2010Q4; Actual: $13,341.7; Potential: $14,109.8. Forecast: 2011Q1; Actual: $13,441.7; Potential: $14,178.3. 2011Q2; Actual: $13,535.3; Potential: $14,247.2. 2011Q3; Actual: $13,644.4; Potential: $14,316.8. 2011Q4; Actual: $13,755.6; Potential: $14,386.9. 2012Q1; Actual: $13,873.1; Potential: $14,455.1. 2012Q2; Actual: $13,993.7; Potential: $14,524.5. 2012Q3; Actual: $14,071.9; Potential: $14,595.6. 2012Q4; Actual: $14,146.6; Potential: $14,669.3. 2013Q1; Actual: $14,301.9; Potential: $14,747.2. 2013Q2; Actual: $14,380.7; Potential: $14,828.6. 2013Q3; Actual: $14,500.1; Potential: $14,913.0. 2013Q4; Actual: $14,638.8; Potential: $15,000.3. 2014Q1; Actual: $14,762.6; Potential: $15,089.7. 2014Q2; Actual: $14,915.6; Potential: $15,181.3. 2014Q3; Actual: $15,024.3; Potential: $15,274.7. 2014Q4; Actual: $15,167.2; Potential: $15,369.4. 2015Q1; Actual: $15,317.4; Potential: $15,465.2. 2015Q2; Actual: $15,461.7; Potential: $15,561.5. 2015Q3; Actual: $15,602.1; Potential: $15,658.6. 2015Q4; Actual: $15,741.4; Potential: $15,756.4. Sources: CBO and Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. [End of figure] Figure: Federal Budget Surpluses and Deficits under Two Fiscal Policy Simulations: Spring 2012: [Refer to PDF for image: line graph] Percentage of GDP: Fiscal year: 2000; Baseline extended: 2.4%; Alternative: 2.4%. Fiscal year: 2001; Baseline extended: 1.3%; Alternative: 1.3%. Fiscal year: 2002; Baseline extended: -1.5%; Alternative: -1.5%. Fiscal year: 2003; Baseline extended: -3.4%; Alternative: -3.4%. Fiscal year: 2004; Baseline extended: -3.5%; Alternative: -3.5%. Fiscal year: 2005; Baseline extended: -2.6%; Alternative: -2.6%. Fiscal year: 2006; Baseline extended: -1.9%; Alternative: -1.9%. Fiscal year: 2007; Baseline extended: -1.2%; Alternative: -1.2%. Fiscal year: 2008; Baseline extended: -3.2%; Alternative: -3.2%. Fiscal year: 2009; Baseline extended: -10.1%; Alternative: -10.1%. Fiscal year: 2010; Baseline extended: -9%; Alternative: -9%. Fiscal year: 2011; Baseline extended: -8.7%; Alternative: -8.7%. Fiscal year: 2012; Baseline extended: -7.0%; Alternative: -7.1%. Fiscal year: 2013; Baseline extended: -3.7%; Alternative: -6.0%. Fiscal year: 2014; Baseline extended: -2.1%; Alternative: -5.4%. Fiscal year: 2015; Baseline extended: -1.5%; Alternative: -5.0%. Fiscal year: 2016; Baseline extended: -1.6%; Alternative: -5.1%. Fiscal year: 2017; Baseline extended: -1.1%; Alternative: -4.7%. Fiscal year: 2018; Baseline extended: -0.9%; Alternative: -4.6%. Fiscal year: 2019; Baseline extended: -1.2%; Alternative: -5.0%. Fiscal year: 2020; Baseline extended: -1.2%; Alternative: -5.2%. Fiscal year: 2021; Baseline extended: -1.2%; Alternative: -5.4%. Fiscal year: 2022; Baseline extended: -1.4%; Alternative: -5.7%. Fiscal year: 2023; Baseline extended: -1.7%; Alternative: -6.7%. Fiscal year: 2024; Baseline extended: -2.3%; Alternative: -7.8%. Fiscal year: 2025; Baseline extended: -2.6%; Alternative: -8.9%. Fiscal year: 2026; Baseline extended: -2.8%; Alternative: -9.5%. Fiscal year: 2027; Baseline extended: -3.1%; Alternative: -10.2%. Fiscal year: 2028; Baseline extended: -3.2%; Alternative: -10.9%. Fiscal year: 2029; Baseline extended: -3.6%; Alternative: -11.6%. Fiscal year: 2030; Baseline extended: -3.7%; Alternative: -12.3%. Fiscal year: 2031; Baseline extended: -4.0%; Alternative: -13.1%. Fiscal year: 2032; Baseline extended: -4.1%; Alternative: -13.8%. Fiscal year: 2033; Baseline extended: -4.3%; Alternative: -14.4%. Fiscal year: 2034; Baseline extended: -4.5%; Alternative: -15.0%. Fiscal year: 2035; Baseline extended: -4.7%; Alternative: -15.6%. Fiscal year: 2036; Baseline extended: -4.9%; Alternative: -16.2%. Fiscal year: 2037; Baseline extended: -5.1%; Alternative: -16.9%. Fiscal year: 2038; Baseline extended: -5.3%; Alternative: -17.4%. Fiscal year: 2039; Baseline extended: -5.4%; Alternative: -18.0%. Fiscal year: 2040; Baseline extended: -5.7%; Alternative: -18.8%. Fiscal year: 2041; Baseline extended: -5.9%; Alternative: -19.4%. Fiscal year: 2042; Baseline extended: -6.0%; Alternative: -20.0%. Fiscal year: 2043; Baseline extended: -6.2%; Alternative: -20.6%. Fiscal year: 2044; Baseline extended: -6.3%; Alternative: -21.2%. Fiscal year: 2045; Baseline extended: -6.5%; Alternative: -21.8%. Fiscal year: 2046; Baseline extended: -6.6%; Alternative: -22.5%. Fiscal year: 2047; Baseline extended: -6.8%; Alternative: -23.1%. Fiscal year: 2048; Baseline extended: -7.0%; Alternative: -23.8%. Fiscal year: 2049; Baseline extended: -7.1%; Alternative: -24.4%. Fiscal year: 2050; Baseline extended: -7.2%; Alternative: -25.1%. Fiscal year: 2051; Baseline extended: -7.5%; Alternative: -25.8%. Fiscal year: 2052; Baseline extended: -7.5%; Alternative: -26.5%. Fiscal year: 2053; Baseline extended: -7.8%; Alternative: -27.2%. Fiscal year: 2054; Baseline extended: -7.8%; Alternative: -28.0%. Fiscal year: 2055; Baseline extended: -8.0%; Alternative: -28.7%. Fiscal year: 2056; Baseline extended: -8.3%; Alternative: -29.5%. Fiscal year: 2057; Baseline extended: -8.4%; Alternative: -30.3%. Fiscal year: 2058; Baseline extended: -8.6%; Alternative: -31.1%. Fiscal year: 2059; Baseline extended: -8.8%; Alternative: -31.9%. Fiscal year: 2060; Baseline extended: -9.0; Alternative: -32.7%. Source: GAO. Note: Data are from GAO’s Spring 2012 simulations based on the Trustees’ assumptions for Social Security and the Trustees’ and CMS Actuary’s alternative assumptions for Medicare. [End of figure] Figure: Debt Held by the Public: Spring 2012 Simulations: [Refer to PDF for image: line graph] Percentage of GDP: Historical high: 100% in 1946. Fiscal year: 2000; Baseline extended: 34.7%; Alternative: 34.7%. Fiscal year: 2001; Baseline extended: 32.5%; Alternative: 32.5%. Fiscal year: 2002; Baseline extended: 33.6%; Alternative: 33.6%. Fiscal year: 2003; Baseline extended: 35.6%; Alternative: 35.6%. Fiscal year: 2004; Baseline extended: 36.8%; Alternative: 36.8%. Fiscal year: 2005; Baseline extended: 36.9%; Alternative: 36.9%. Fiscal year: 2006; Baseline extended: 36.5%; Alternative: 36.5%. Fiscal year: 2007; Baseline extended: 36.2%; Alternative: 36.2%. Fiscal year: 2008; Baseline extended: 40.3%; Alternative: 40.3%. Fiscal year: 2009; Baseline extended: 53.5%; Alternative: 53.5%. Fiscal year: 2010; Baseline extended: 62.2%; Alternative: 62.2%. Fiscal year: 2022; Baseline extended: 67.3%; Alternative: 67.3%. Fiscal year: 2012; Baseline extended: 71.2%; Alternative: 71.4%. Fiscal year: 2013; Baseline extended: 72.8%; Alternative: 74.9%. Fiscal year: 2014; Baseline extended: 71.6%; Alternative: 76.3%. Fiscal year: 2015; Baseline extended: 68.7%; Alternative: 75.9%. Fiscal year: 2016; Baseline extended: 67.2%; Alternative: 76.9%. Fiscal year: 2017; Baseline extended: 65.8%; Alternative: 78.0%. Fiscal year: 2018; Baseline extended: 64.3%; Alternative: 79.1%. Fiscal year: 2019; Baseline extended: 63.1%; Alternative: 80.5%. Fiscal year: 2020; Baseline extended: 62.0%; Alternative: 82.2%. Fiscal year: 2021; Baseline extended: 61.0%; Alternative: 84.0%. Fiscal year: 2033; Baseline extended: 60.8%; Alternative: 87.0%. Fiscal year: 2023; Baseline extended: 60.7%; Alternative: 90.5%. Fiscal year: 2024; Baseline extended: 61.1%; Alternative: 94.6%. Fiscal year: 2025; Baseline extended: 61.7%; Alternative: 99.4%. Fiscal year: 2026; Baseline extended: 62.6%; Alternative: 104.9%. Fiscal year: 2027; Baseline extended: 63.6%; Alternative: 110.8%. Fiscal year: 2028; Baseline extended: 64.8%; Alternative: 117.1%. Fiscal year: 2029; Baseline extended: 66.3%; Alternative: 123.9%. Fiscal year: 2030; Baseline extended: 67.8%; Alternative: 131.1%. Fiscal year: 2031; Baseline extended: 69.6%; Alternative: 138.6%. Fiscal year: 2032; Baseline extended: 71.4%; Alternative: 146.4%. Fiscal year: 2033; Baseline extended: 73.4%; Alternative: 154.4%. Fiscal year: 2034; Baseline extended: 75.5%; Alternative: 162.7%. Fiscal year: 2035; Baseline extended: 77.7%; Alternative: 171.3%. Fiscal year: 2036; Baseline extended: 80.1%; Alternative: 180.1%. Fiscal year: 2037; Baseline extended: 82.5%; Alternative: 189.1%. Fiscal year: 2038; Baseline extended: 85.0%; Alternative: 198.1%. Fiscal year: 2039; Baseline extended: 87.5%. Fiscal year: 2040; Baseline extended: 90.3%. Fiscal year: 2041; Baseline extended: 93.2%. Fiscal year: 2042; Baseline extended: 96.1%. Fiscal year: 2043; Baseline extended: 99.0%. Fiscal year: 2044; Baseline extended: 102.0%. Fiscal year: 2045; Baseline extended: 105.1%. Fiscal year: 2046; Baseline extended: 108.2%. Fiscal year: 2047; Baseline extended: 111.4%. Fiscal year: 2048; Baseline extended: 114.6%. Fiscal year: 2049; Baseline extended: 117.9%. Fiscal year: 2050; Baseline extended: 121.1%. Fiscal year: 2051; Baseline extended: 124.5%. Fiscal year: 2052; Baseline extended: 127.9%. Fiscal year: 2053; Baseline extended: 131.5%. Fiscal year: 2054; Baseline extended: 135.0%. Fiscal year: 2055; Baseline extended: 138.5%. Fiscal year: 2056; Baseline extended: 142.3%. Fiscal year: 2057; Baseline extended: 146.0%. Fiscal year: 2058; Baseline extended: 149.7%. Fiscal year: 2059; Baseline extended: 153.6%. Source: GAO. Note: Data are from GAO's Spring 2012 simulations based on the Trustees' assumptions for Social Security and the Trustees' and the CMS Actuary's assumptions for Medicare. [End of figure] Source: GAO. Additional Perspective from the Financial Report: Figure: Illustration of 2001 Financial Report of the United States Government. [End of figure] Figure: Key Drivers of the Long-Term Fiscal Challenge: Aging of the U.S. Population: [Refer to PDF for image: line graph] Percent of total population aged 65 and over: Historical: 1965: 9%; 1966: 9%; 1967: 9%; 1968: 10%; 1969: 10%; 1970: 10%; 1971: 10%; 1972: 10%; 1973: 10%; 1974: 10%; 1975: 10%; 1976: 10%; 1977: 11%; 1978: 11%; 1979: 11%; 1980: 11%; 1981: 11%; 1982: 11%; 1983: 12%; 1984: 12%; 1985: 12%; 1986: 12%; 1987: 12%; 1988: 12%; 1989: 12%; 1990: 12%; 1991: 12%; 1992: 12%; 1993: 12%; 1994: 13%; 1995: 13%; 1996: 13%; 1997: 13%; 1998: 12%; 1999: 12%; 2000: 12%; 2001: 12%; 2002: 12%; 2003: 12%; 2004: 12%; 2005: 12%; 2006: 12%; 2007: 13%; 2008: 13%; [Oldest members of the baby-boom generation become eligible for early Social Security retirement benefits] 2009: 13%; 2010: 13%; 2011: 13%; [Oldest members of the baby-boom generation become eligible for Medicare] Projected: 2012: 13%; 2013: 14%; 2014: 14%; 2015: 14%; 2016: 15%; 2017: 15%; 2018: 15%; 2019: 16%; 2020: 16%; 2021: 17%; 2022: 17%; 2023: 17%; 2024: 18%; 2025: 18%; 2026: 18%; 2027: 19%; 2028: 19%; 2029: 19%; 2030: 20%; 2031: 20%; 2032: 20%; 2033: 20%; 2034: 20%; 2035: 20%; 2036: 20%; 2037: 20%; 2038: 20%; 2039: 20%; 2040: 20%; 2041: 20%; 2042: 20%; 2043: 20%; 2044: 20%; 2045: 20%; 2046: 20%; 2047: 20%; 2048: 20%; 2049: 20%; 2050: 20%; 2051: 20%; 2052: 20%; 2053: 20%; 2054: 21%; 2055: 21%; 2056: 21%; 2057: 21%; 2058: 21%; 2059: 21%; 2060: 21%; 2061: 21%; 2062: 21%; 2063: 21%; 2064: 21%; 2065: 21%; 2066: 21%; 2067: 21%; 2068: 21%; 2069: 22%; 2070: 22%; 2071: 22%; 2072: 22%; 2073: 22%; 2074: 22%; 2075: 22%; 2076: 22%; 2077: 22%; 2078: 22%; 2079: 22%; 2080: 22%; 2081: 22%; 2082: 22%; 2083: 22%; 2084: 23%; 2085: 23%; 2086: 23%. Source: GAO analysis of data from the Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration. Note: Projections based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2011 Trustees’ Reports. [End of figure] Figure: Average Number of Baby Boomers Turning 65 Each Day: [Refer to PDF for image: vertical bar graph] Year: 2010; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 7,151. Year: 2011; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 9,100. Year: 2012; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 9,100. Year: 2013; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 9,200. Year: 2014; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 9,100. Year: 2015; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 9,400. Year: 2016; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 9,400. Year: 2017; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 9,700. Year: 2018; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 1000. Year: 2019; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 10,200. Year: 2020; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 10,700. Year: 2021; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 10,700. Year: 2022; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 11,000. Year: 2023; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 11,200. Year: 2024; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 11,200. Year: 2025; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 11,600. Year: 2026; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 11,400. Year: 2027; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 11,400. Year: 2028; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 11,300. Year: 2029; Daily average number of people turning 66 each year: 11,400. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2009 National Population Projections. [End of figure] Key Drivers of the Long-Term Fiscal Challenge: Growth in Health Care Spending: Figure: Cumulative Growth in Real Health Care Spending Per Capita and Real GDP Per Capita, 1960-2010: [Refer to PDF for image: line graph] Real health care spending per capita: Average annual growth rate of 4.6%: 1960: 0; 1961: 3.6%; 1962: 10.2%; 1963: 16.9%; 1964: 26.1%; 1965: 33.4%; 1966: 41.4%; 1967: 52.2%; 1968: 64.4%; 1969: 74.7%; 1970: 85.2%; 1971: 93.7%; 1972: 105.7%; 1973: 114.7%; 1974: 121.5%; 1975: 128.8%; 1976: 145.6%; 1977: 160.4%; 1978: 171.2%; 1979: 181.0%; 1980: 194.1%; 1981: 208.8%; 1982: 225.1%; 1983: 241.5%; 1984: 259.4%; 1985: 278.0%; 1986: 293.0%; 1987: 312.0%; 1988: 342.1%; 1989: 369.7%; 1990: 400.1%; 1991: 421.5%; 1992: 445.5%; 1993: 466.7%; 1994: 479.5%; 1995: 493.5%; 1996: 507.2%; 1997: 523.7%; 1998: 546.1%; 1999: 570.8%; 2000: 596.1%; 2001: 631.4%; 2002: 681.0%; 2003: 722.3%; 2004: 748.7%; 2005: 769.6%; 2006: 789.3%; 2007: 809.2%; 2008: 822.5%; 2008: 840.3%; 2010: 858.4%. Real GDP per capita: Average annual growth rate of 2.1%: 1960: 0; 1961: 0.7%; 1962: 5.3%; 1963: 8.3%; 1964: 13%; 1965: 18.9%; 1966: 25.3%; 1967: 27.3%; 1968: 32.2%; 1969: 35%; 1970: 33.6%; 1971: 36.4%; 1972: 42.3%; 1973: 49.3%; 1974: 47.3%; 1975: 45.8%; 1976: 52.3%; 1977: 58.1%; 1978: 65.3%; 1979: 68.8%; 1980: 66.7%; 1981: 69.3%; 1982: 64.3%; 1983: 70.2%; 1984: 80.7%; 1985: 86.5%; 1986: 91.1%; 1987: 95.5%; 1988: 101.9%; 1989: 106.7%; 1990: 108.2%; 1991: 105.3%; 1992: 109.7%; 1993: 113.2%; 1994: 119.5%; 1995: 122.7%; 1996: 128.7%; 1997: 136.5%; 1998: 144.3%; 1999: 153.6%; 2000: 161.6%; 2001: 161.8%; 2002: 164.1%; 2003: 168.5%; 2004: 175.4%; 2005: 181.3%; 2006: 186.1%; 2007: 188.7%; 2008: 185.1%; 2009: 173%; 2010: 179.1%. Source: GAO analysis of data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: The most current data available on health care spending per capita are for 2010. [End of figure: Figure: Composition of Spending 1965 vs. 2011: [Refer to PDF for image: 2 pie-charts] 1965: Social Security: 17.1%; Medicare and Medicaid: 0.3%; Defense Discretionary: 51%; Non-Defense Discretionary: 26.7%; Net Interest: 8.6%; Other Mandatory: 14.5%. 2011: Social Security: 20%; Medicare and Medicaid: 21%; Defense Discretionary: 19%; Non-Defense Discretionary: 18%; Net Interest: 6%; Other Mandatory: 15%. Source: OMB and CBO. [End of figure] The Budget Control Act: Focus on Discretionary Spending: Figure: Discretionary Spending as a Share of GDP, 1991-2021: [Refer to PDF for image: vertical bar graph] 20-year historical average: 7.5%. Historical: 1991: 9%; 1992: 9%; 1993: 8%; 1994: 8%; 1995: 7%; 1996: 7%; 1997: 7%; 1998: 6%; 1999: 6%; 2000: 6%; 2001: 6%; 2002: 7%; 2003: 8%; 2004: 8%; 2005: 8%; 2006: 8%; 2007: 7%; 2008: 8%; 2009: 9%; 2010: 9%; 2011: 9%. CBO baseline: 2012: 8.4%; 2013: 7.7%; 2014: 7.2%; 2015: 6.8%; 2016: 6.5%; 2017: 6.3%; 2018: 6.1%; 2019: 5.9%; 2020: 5.8%; 2021: 5.7%. Source: GAO analysis of data from the Congressional Budget Office. OMB data. Discretionary spending includes much of what many think of as “government” such as spending on national defense, homeland security, veterans health benefits, national parks, highways and mass transit, and foreign aid. [End of figure] Beyond the Drivers: What Agencies Can Do: * Better manage costs and risks. * Contribute to discussion about program priorities and relative effectiveness. * Look for overlap, duplication, fragmentation: - Within agency, across agencies, across spending, credit & tax programs. GAO Products & Weblinks: Federal Debt and the Fiscal Outlook: [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/special.pubs/longterm/] Federal Debt: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions: [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/special.pubs/longterm/debt/] Measuring the Deficit: Cash vs. Accrual: [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/special.pubs/longterm/deficit/] Financial Reports of the U.S. Government: [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/financial.html] On the Web: Web site: [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/] Contact: Chuck Young, Managing Director, Public Affairs, youngc1@gao.gov, (202) 512-4800: U.S. Government Accountability Office: 441 G Street NW, Room 7149: Washington, D.C. 20548. Copyright: This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. The published product may be reproduced and distributed in its entirety without further permission from GAO. However, because this work may contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the copyright holder may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this material separately. [End of presentation]