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Anticipating and Meeting Accountability Challenges in a Dynamic 
Environment: 

Institute of Internal Auditors 
Washington, DC: 
November 15, 2011: 

Gene L. Dodaro: 
Comptroller General: 
U.S. Government Accountability Office: 

GAO-12-252CG: 

Overview: 

* GAO's Mission and Strategic Plan: 

* Trends Affecting Government and the U.S. 

* GAO's Related Work: 

GAO's Planning & Performance Documents: 

[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/sp.html] 

* Strategic Plan. 

* Performance Plan. 

* Performance & Accountability Report. 

Strategic Planning Framework: 

Goal: Provide Timely, Quality Service to the Congress and the Federal 
Government to Address Current and Emerging Challenges to the Well-
being and Financial Security of the American People related to: 
Objectives: 
* Health care needs; 
* Lifelong learning; 
* Benefits and protections for workers, families, and children; 
* Financial security; 
* Effective system of justice; 
* Viable communities; 
* Stable financial system and consumer protection; 
* Stewardship of natural resources and the environment; 
* Infrastructure. 

Goal: Provide Timely, Quality Service to the Congress and the Federal 
Government to Respond to Changing Security Threats and the Challenges 
of Global Interdependence involving: 
Objectives: 
* Homeland security; 
* Military capabilities and readiness; 
* Advancement of U.S. Interests; 
* Global market forces. 

Goal: Help Transform the Federal Government to Address National 
Challenges by assessing: 
Objectives: 
* Government's fiscal position and options for closing gap; 
* Fraud, waste, and abuse; 
* Major management challenges and program risks. 

Goal: Maximize the Value of GAO by Enabling Quality, Timely Service to 
the Congress and Being a Leading Practices Federal Agency in the areas 
of: 
Objectives: 
* Efficiency, effectiveness, and quality; 
* Diverse and inclusive work environment; 
* Professional networks and collaboration; 
* Institutional stewardship and resource management. 

Trend 1: Threats Confronting U.S. National Security Interests: 

* Regional instability (Middle East, Central Asia, Africa). 

* Longstanding threats (extremism, terrorism, proliferation of 
weapons, cybersecurity). 

* Emerging threats (energy security, climate change, global recession). 

* Need for new capabilities alongside increasingly constrained 
resources. 

Trend 1: Threats Confronting U.S. National Security Interests: 

Related GAO work: 

* Reviewing U.S. security and reconstruction efforts related to 
Afghanistan, Iraq and other regions in conflict, including reviewing 
the effect of drawing down military resources in Iraq, and countering 
terrorism and nuclear supplier networks in Pakistan. 

* Assessing U.S. efforts to combat terrorism abroad. 

* Reviewing the government's efforts to identify and act on credible 
threats to homeland and border security, as well as those involving 
biological, chemical, and nuclear dimensions. 

* Analyzing the funding and costs of military operations and programs 
given the fiscal pressures facing the nation. 

* Evaluate efforts to ensure the reliability, security, and 
affordability of energy supply infrastructure and assess the 
implications of climate change for the federal government. 

Trend 2: Fiscal Sustainability and Debt Challenges: 

Figure: Federal Budget Surpluses and Deficits under Different Fiscal 
Policy Simulations: 

[Refer to PDF for image: line graph] 

Percentage of GDP: 

Year: 2000; 
Baseline extended: 2.4%; 
Alternative: 2.4%. 

Year: 2001; 
Baseline extended: 1.3%; 
Alternative: 1.3%. 

Year: 2002; 
Baseline extended: -1.5%; 
Alternative: -1.5%. 

Year: 2003; 
Baseline extended: -3.4%; 
Alternative: -3.4%. 

Year: 2004; 
Baseline extended: -3.5%; 
Alternative: -3.5%. 

Year: 2005; 
Baseline extended: -2.6%; 
Alternative: -2.6%. 

Year: 2006; 
Baseline extended: -1.9%; 
Alternative: -1.9%. 

Year: 2007; 
Baseline extended: -1.2%; 
Alternative: -1.2%. 

Year: 2008; 
Baseline extended: -3.2%; 
Alternative: -3.2%. 

Year: 2009; 
Baseline extended: -10%; 
Alternative: -10%. 

Year: 2010; 
Baseline extended: -8.9%; 
Alternative: -8.9%. 

Year: 2011; 
Baseline extended: -8.5%; 
Alternative: -8.5%. 

Year: 2012; 
Baseline extended: -6.2%; 
Alternative: -6.4%. 

Year: 2013; 
Baseline extended: -3.2%; 
Alternative: -5.1%. 

Year: 2014; 
Baseline extended: -1.6%; 
Alternative: -4.3%. 

Year: 2015; 
Baseline extended: -1.1%; 
Alternative: -3.9%. 

Year: 2016; 
Baseline extended: -1.5%; 
Alternative: -4.3%. 

Year: 2017; 
Baseline extended: -1.2%; 
Alternative: -4.1%. 

Year: 2018; 
Baseline extended: -1.0%; 
Alternative: -4.1%. 

Year: 2019; 
Baseline extended: -1.2%; 
Alternative: -4.5%. 

Year: 2020; 
Baseline extended: -1.2%; 
Alternative: -4.7%. 

Year: 2021; 
Baseline extended: -1.2%; 
Alternative: -4.8%. 

Year: 2022; 
Baseline extended: -1.9%; 
Alternative: -5.9%. 

Year: 2023; 
Baseline extended: -2.1%; 
Alternative: -6.7%. 

Year: 2024; 
Baseline extended: -2.5%; 
Alternative: -7.5%. 

Year: 2025; 
Baseline extended: -2.7%; 
Alternative: -8.3%. 

Year: 2026; 
Baseline extended: -3.0%; 
Alternative: -9.1%. 

Year: 2027; 
Baseline extended: -3.2%; 
Alternative: -9.8%. 

Year: 2028; 
Baseline extended: -3.4%; 
Alternative: -10.5%. 

Year: 2029; 
Baseline extended: -3.7%; 
Alternative: -11.1%. 

Year: 2030; 
Baseline extended: -3.9%; 
Alternative: -11.8%. 

Year: 2031; 
Baseline extended: -4.2%; 
Alternative: -12.5%. 

Year: 2032; 
Baseline extended: -4.3%; 
Alternative: -13.12%. 

Year: 2033; 
Baseline extended: -4.5%; 
Alternative: -13.7%. 

Year: 2034; 
Baseline extended: -4.8%; 
Alternative: -14.3%. 

Year: 2035; 
Baseline extended: -5.0%; 
Alternative: -14.8%. 

Year: 2036; 
Baseline extended: -5.2%; 
Alternative: -15.4%; 

Year: 2037; 
Baseline extended: -5.4%; 
Alternative: -16.0%. 

Year: 2038; 
Baseline extended: -5.6%; 
Alternative: -16.5%. 

Year: 2039; 
Baseline extended: -5.1%; 
Alternative: -17.1%. 

Year: 2040; 
Baseline extended: -6.0%; 
Alternative: -17.8%. 

Year: 2041; 
Baseline extended: -6.2%; 
Alternative: -18.4%. 

Year: 2042; 
Baseline extended: -6.4%; 
Alternative: -18.9%. 

Year: 2043; 
Baseline extended: -6.5%; 
Alternative: -19.5%. 

Year: 2044; 
Baseline extended: -6.9%; 
Alternative: -20.7%. 

Year: 2045; 
Baseline extended: -6.9%; 
Alternative: -20.7%. 

Year: 2046; 
Baseline extended: -7.1%; 
Alternative: -21.4%. 

Year: 2047; 
Baseline extended: -7.2%; 
Alternative: -22.0%. 

Year: 2048; 
Baseline extended: -7.4%; 
Alternative: -22.6%. 

Year: 2049; 
Baseline extended: -7.6%; 
Alternative: -23.2%. 

Year: 2050; 
Baseline extended: -7.6%; 
Alternative: -23.8%. 

Year: 2051; 
Baseline extended: -7.9%; 
Alternative: -24.5%. 

Year: 2052; 
Baseline extended: -8.0%; 
Alternative: -25.2%. 

Year: 2053; 
Baseline extended: -8.3%; 
Alternative: -25.9%. 

Year: 2054; 
Baseline extended: -8.4%; 
Alternative: -26.6%. 

Year: 2055; 
Baseline extended: -8.5%; 
Alternative: -27.4%. 

Year: 2056; 
Baseline extended: -8.9%; 
Alternative: -28.1%. 

Year: 2057; 
Baseline extended: -9.0%; 
Alternative: -28.8%. 

Year: 2058; 
Baseline extended: -9.2%; 
Alternative: -29.6%. 

Year: 2059; 
Baseline extended: -9.4%; 
Alternative: -30.4%. 

Year: 2060; 
Baseline extended: -9.6%; 
Alternative: -31.2%. 

Source: GAO. 

Note: Data are from GAO's Fall 2011 simulations based on the 
Trustees' assumptions for Social Security and the Trustees' and the 
CMS Actuary's assumptions for Medicare. 

[End of figure] 

Trend 2: Fiscal Sustainability and Debt Challenges 

Figure: Debt Held by the Public Under Two Fiscal Policy Simulations: 

[Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph] 

Percent of GDP: 

Historical high: 109 percent in 1946. 

Fiscal year: 2000; 
Baseline extended: 34.7%; 
Alternative: 34.7%. 

Fiscal year: 2001; 
Baseline extended: 32.5%; 
Alternative: 32.5%. 

Fiscal year: 2002; 
Baseline extended: 33.6%; 
Alternative: 33.6%. 

Fiscal year: 2003; 
Baseline extended: 35.6%; 
Alternative: 35.6%. 

Fiscal year: 2004; 
Baseline extended: 36.8%; 
Alternative: 36.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2005; 
Baseline extended: 36.9%; 
Alternative: 36.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2006; 
Baseline extended: 36.5%; 
Alternative: 36.5%. 

Fiscal year: 2007; 
Baseline extended: 36.2%; 
Alternative: 36.2%. 

Fiscal year: 2008; 
Baseline extended: 40.2%; 
Alternative: 40.2%. 

Fiscal year: 2009; 
Baseline extended: 53.3%; 
Alternative: 53.3%. 

Fiscal year: 2010; 
Baseline extended: 62.2%; 
Alternative: 62.2%. 

Fiscal year: 2011; 
Baseline extended: 67.3%; 
Alternative: 67.3%. 

Fiscal year: 2012; 
Baseline extended: 71.2%; 
Alternative: 71.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2013; 
Baseline extended: 72.8%; 
Alternative: 74.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2014; 
Baseline extended: 71.6%; 
Alternative: 72.3%. 

Fiscal year: 2015; 
Baseline extended: 68.6%; 
Alternative: 75.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2016; 
Baseline extended: 67.2%; 
Alternative: 76.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2017; 
Baseline extended: 65.8%; 
Alternative: 78.0%. 

Fiscal year: 2018; 
Baseline extended: 64.3%; 
Alternative: 79.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2019; 
Baseline extended: 63.1%; 
Alternative: 80.5%. 

Fiscal year: 2020; 
Baseline extended: 62.0%; 
Alternative: 82.2%. 

Fiscal year: 2021; 
Baseline extended: 61.0%; 
Alternative: 84.0%. 

Fiscal year: 2022; 
Baseline extended: 60.8%; 
Alternative: 87.0%. 

Fiscal year: 2023; 
Baseline extended: 60.7%; 
Alternative: 90.5%. 

Fiscal year: 2024; 
Baseline extended: 61.1%; 
Alternative: 94.6%. 

Fiscal year: 2025; 
Baseline extended: 61.7%; 
Alternative: 99.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2026; 
Baseline extended: 62.6%; 
Alternative: 104.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2027; 
Baseline extended: 63.6%; 
Alternative: 110.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2028; 
Baseline extended: 64.8%; 
Alternative: 117.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2029; 
Baseline extended: 66.3%; 
Alternative: 123.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2030; 
Baseline extended: 67.8%; 
Alternative: 131.0%. 

Fiscal year: 2031; 
Baseline extended: 69.6%; 
Alternative: 138.6%. 

Fiscal year: 2032; 
Baseline extended: 71.4%; 
Alternative: 146.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2033; 
Baseline extended: 73.4%; 
Alternative: 154.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2034; 
Baseline extended: 75.5%; 
Alternative: 162.7%. 

Fiscal year: 2035; 
Baseline extended: 77.7%; 
Alternative: 171.3%. 

Fiscal year: 2036; 
Baseline extended: 80.1%; 
Alternative: 180.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2037; 
Baseline extended: 82.5%; 
Alternative: 189.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2038; 
Baseline extended: 85.0%; 
Alternative: 198.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2039; 
Baseline extended: 87.5%; 
Alternative: 207.3%. 

Fiscal year: 2040; 
Baseline extended: 90.3%; 
Alternative: 217.0%. 

Fiscal year: 2041; 
Baseline extended: 93.2%; 
Alternative: 226.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2042; 
Baseline extended: 96.1%; 
Alternative: 236.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2043; 
Baseline extended: 99.0%; 
Alternative: 247.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2044; 
Baseline extended: 102.0%; 
Alternative: 257.5%. 

Fiscal year: 2045; 
Baseline extended: 105.1%; 
Alternative: 268.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2046; 
Baseline extended: 108.2%; 
Alternative: 278.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2047; 
Baseline extended: 111.4%; 
Alternative: 289.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2048; 
Baseline extended: 114.6%; 
Alternative: 301.1%. 

Fiscal year: 2049; 
Baseline extended: 117.9%; 
Alternative: 312.3%. 

Fiscal year: 2050; 
Baseline extended: 121.0%; 
Alternative: 323.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2051; 
Baseline extended: 124.5%; 
Alternative: 335.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2052; 
Baseline extended: 127.9%; 
Alternative: 348.0%. 

Fiscal year: 2053; 
Baseline extended: 131.5%; 
Alternative: 360.4%. 

Fiscal year: 2054; 
Baseline extended: 135.0%; 
Alternative: 373.0%. 

Fiscal year: 2055; 
Baseline extended: 138.5%; 
Alternative: 385.9%. 

Fiscal year: 2056; 
Baseline extended: 142.3%; 
Alternative: 399.0%. 

Fiscal year: 2057; 
Baseline extended: 146.0%; 
Alternative: 412.3%. 

Fiscal year: 2058; 
Baseline extended: 149.7%; 
Alternative: 425.8%. 

Fiscal year: 2059; 
Baseline extended: 153.6%; 
Alternative: 439.6%. 

Fiscal year: 2060; 
Baseline extended: 157.4%; 
Alternative: 453.6. 

Source: GAO. 

Note: Data are from GAO's Fall 2011 simulations based on the Social 
Security Trustees' assumptions for Social Security and the Trustees' 
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Office of the Actuary's 
assumptions for Medicare. 

[End of figure] 

Trend 2: Fiscal Sustainability and Debt Challenges: 

Table: Rising Health Care Costs and an Aging Population Have Already 
Begun to Affect the Federal Budget: 
 
2008: 
Oldest members of the baby-boom generation became eligible for early 
Social Security retirement benefits. 

2008: 
Medicare Hospital Insurance outlays exceeded cash income. 

2010: 
Social Security runs first cash deficit in more than a quarter century. 

2011: 
Oldest members of the baby-boom generation become eligible for 
Medicare. 

2027: 
Debt held by the public under GAO's Alternative simulation exceeds the 
historical high reached in the aftermath of World War II. 

Source: GAO. 

[End of table] 

Trend 2: Fiscal Sustainability and Debt Challenges: 

Figure: Spending on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and 
Exchange Subsidies under Baseline Extended Simulation: 

[Refer to PDF for image: stacked line graph] 

Percent of GDP: 

2010; 
Social Security: 4.8%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 1.9%; 
Medicare: 3.1%. 

2015: 
Social Security: 4.9%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 2.3; 
Medicare: 3.1%. 

2020; 
Social Security: 5.3%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 2.7%; 
Medicare: 3.3%. 

2025: 
Social Security: 5.8%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.0%; 
Medicare: 3.9%. 

2030; 
Social Security: 6.1%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.1%; 
Medicare: 4.4%. 

2035: 
Social Security: 6.2%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.3%; 
Medicare: 4.7%. 

2040; 
Social Security: 6.2%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.6%; 
Medicare: 4.9%. 

2045: 
Social Security: 6.1%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.7%; 
Medicare: 5.0%. 

2050; 
Social Security: 6.0%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.7%; 
Medicare: 5.0%. 

2055: 
Social Security: 6.0%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.8%; 
Medicare: 5.1%. 

2060; 
Social Security: 5.9%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.9%; 
Medicare: 5.1%. 

2065: 
Social Security: 5.9%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.9%; 
Medicare: 5.2%. 

2070; 
Social Security: 5.9%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.9%; 
Medicare: 5.2%. 

2075: 
Social Security: 5.9%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 4.0%; 
Medicare: 5.2%. 

2080; 
Social Security: 6.0%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.9%; 
Medicare: 5.2%. 

2085: 
Social Security: 6.0%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 4.1%; 
Medicare: 5.2%. 

Source: GAO. 

Note: Social Security and Medicare projections are based on CBO's 
August 2011 baseline through 2021 and the Trustees' 2011 intermediate 
assumptions thereafter. Projections for Medicaid, the Children's 
Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and state health insurance exchange 
subsidies are based on CBO's short-term estimates (from August 2011) 
and long-term projections (from June 2011) of outlays for those 
programs, adjusted to reflect excess cost growth consistent with the 
2011 Trustees' intermediate assumptions. This figure does not take 
into account any changes to these programs that may result from the 
provisions in the Budget Control Act related to the Joint Select 
Committee on Deficit Reduction. 

[End of figure] 

Figure: Spending on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and 
Exchange Subsidies under Alternative Simulation: 

[Refer to PDF for image: stacked line graph] 

Percent of GDP: 

2010; 
Social Security: 4.8%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 1.9%; 
Medicare: 3.1%. 

2015: 
Social Security: 4.9%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 2.3; 
Medicare: 3.2%. 

2020; 
Social Security: 5.7%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 2.7%; 
Medicare: 3.5%. 

2025: 
Social Security: 5.8%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.1%; 
Medicare: 4.2%. 

2030; 
Social Security: 6.1%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.3%; 
Medicare: 5.`%. 

2035: 
Social Security: 6.2%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.6%; 
Medicare: 5.7%. 

2040; 
Social Security: 6.2%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 3.9%; 
Medicare: 6.1%. 

2045: 
Social Security: 6.1%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 4.1%; 
Medicare: 6.4%. 

2050; 
Social Security: 6.0%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 4.3%; 
Medicare: 6.8%. 

2055: 
Social Security: 6.0%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 4.4%; 
Medicare: 7.1%. 

2060; 
Social Security: 5.9%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 4.5%; 
Medicare: 7.5%. 

2065: 
Social Security: 5.9%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 4.6%; 
Medicare: 7.9%. 

2070; 
Social Security: 5.9%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 4.6%; 
Medicare: 8.2%. 

2075: 
Social Security: 5.9%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 4.8%; 
Medicare: 8.5%. 

2080; 
Social Security: 6.0%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 4.9%; 
Medicare: 8.8%. 

2085: 
Social Security: 6.0%; 
Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies: 4.9%; 
Medicare: 9.0%. 

Source: GAO. 

Note: Social Security and Medicare projections are based on CBO's 
August 2011 baseline through 2021 and the Trustees' 2011 intermediate 
assumptions thereafter. Projections for Medicaid, the Children's 
Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and state health insurance exchange 
subsidies are based on CBO's short-term estimates (from August 2011) 
and long-term projections (from June 2011) of outlays for those 
programs, adjusted to reflect excess cost growth consistent with the 
2011 Trustees' intermediate assumptions. This figure does not take 
into account any changes to these programs that may result from the 
provisions in the Budget Control Act related to the Joint Select 
Committee on Deficit Reduction. 

[End of figure] 

Figure: State and Local Operating Balance Measure, as a Percentage of 
Gross Domestic Product: 

[Refer to PDF for image: line graph] 

Positive Balance: Surplus. 
Negative Balance: Deficit. 

Year: 2005; 
Balance: 0.1%. 

Year: 2006; 
Balance: 0.3%. 

Year: 2007; 
Balance: 0.1%. 

Year: 2008; 
Balance: -0.4%. 

Year: 2009; 
Balance: 0%. 

Year: 2010; 
Balance: 0%. 

Year: 2011; 
Balance: -0.4%. 

Year: 2012; 
Balance: -0.7%. 

Year: 2013; 
Balance: -0.9%. 

Year: 2014; 
Balance: -1%. 

Year: 2015; 
Balance: -1.1%. 

Year: 2016; 
Balance: -1.2%. 

Year: 2017; 
Balance: -1.3%. 

Year: 2018; 
Balance: -1.4%. 

Year: 2019; 
Balance: -1.5%. 

Year: 2020; 
Balance: -1.6%. 

Year: 2021; 
Balance: -1.7%. 

Year: 2022; 
Balance: -1.8%. 

Year: 2023; 
Balance: -1.7%. 

Year: 2024; 
Balance: -1.8%. 

Year: 2025; 
Balance: -1.9%. 

Year: 2026; 
Balance: -1.9%. 

Year: 2027; 
Balance: -1.9%. 

Year: 2028; 
Balance: -2%. 

Year: 2029; 
Balance: -2.1%. 

Year: 2030; 
Balance: -2.1%. 

Year: 2031; 
Balance: -2.2%. 

Year: 2032; 
Balance: -2.2%. 

Year: 2033; 
Balance: -2.2%. 

Year: 2034; 
Balance: -2.3%. 

Year: 2035; 
Balance: -2.3%. 

Year: 2036; 
Balance: -2.4%. 

Year: 2037; 
Balance: -2.5%. 

Year: 2038; 
Balance: -2.5%. 

Year: 2039; 
Balance: -2.6%. 

Year: 2040; 
Balance: -2.6%. 

Year: 2041; 
Balance: -2.7%. 

Year: 2042; 
Balance: -2.7%. 

Year: 2043; 
Balance: -2.7%. 

Year: 2044; 
Balance: -2.8%. 

Year: 2045; 
Balance: -2.8%. 

Year: 2046; 
Balance: -2.9%. 

Year: 2047; 
Balance: -3%. 

Year: 2048; 
Balance: -3%. 

Year: 2049; 
Balance: -3%. 

Year: 2050; 
Balance: -3%. 

Year: 2051; 
Balance: -3.1%. 

Year: 2052; 
Balance: -3.2%. 

Year: 2053; 
Balance: -3.2%. 

Year: 2054; 
Balance: -3.2%. 

Year: 2055; 
Balance: -3.3%. 

Year: 2056; 
Balance: -3.3%. 

Year: 2057; 
Balance: -3.3%. 

Year: 2058; 
Balance: -3.4%. 

Year: 2059; 
Balance: -3.4%. 

Year: 2060; 
Balance: -3.4%. 

Source: GAO simulations, updated April 2011. 

Note: Historical data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis's 
National Income and Product Accounts from 1980 to 2009. Data in 2010 
are GAO estimates aligned with published data where available. GAO 
simulations are from 2011 to 2060, using many Congressional Budget 
Office projections and assumptions, particularly for the next 10 
years. Simulations are based on current policy. 

[End of figure] 

Related GAO work: 

* Conducting work to assess duplication and overlap among federal 
programs and agencies. 

* Identifying elements to help address the nation's financial 
challenges including Social Security, tax reform, retirement, and 
disability programs; opportunities to reduce spending; and reducing 
the gap between taxes owed and taxes collected. 

* Performing financial statement audits (IRS, Schedule of Federal 
Debt, FDIC, FHA, Consolidated Financial Statements, SEC). 

* Performing long-term fiscal simulations and analyses of federal 
deficits, federal debt levels, and the state and local sector. 

* Identifying and recommending solutions to reduce the risk of waste, 
fraud, and abuse and improper payments. 

Summary of 2011 report (GAO-11-318SP): 

* 34 areas where agencies, offices, or initiatives have similar or 
overlapping objectives or provide similar services to the same 
populations; or where government missions are fragmented across 
multiple agencies or programs. 

* 47 additional areas describing other opportunities for agencies or 
Congress to consider taking action that could either reduce the cost 
of government operations or enhance revenue collections for the 
Treasury. 

* Depending on the extent of actions taken, these savings and revenues 
could collectively result in tens of billions of dollars in annual 
savings. 

Examples of GAO duplication and cost saving or revenue enhancement 
issues: 

Duplication, Overlap, or Fragmentation: 

DODís military medical command structures. 

* Fragmented food safety system. 

* Multiple employment and training programs. 

* Fragmented economic development programs. 

* Fragmented federal approach to surface transportation. 

* Federal data centers. 

* Ethanol. 

Cost Saving or Revenue Enhancement: 

* Promoting competition in federal contracts. 

* Better targeting of Medicaid and Medicare improper payments. 

* Multiple opportunities to address tax expenditures and tax gap. 

Results of the FY 2010 Financial Audits: 

* 20 of 24 CFO Act Agencies received unqualified audit opinions on 
their accrual-based financial statements. (Only 6 did in 1996.) 

* Three major impediments continue to prevent GAO from rendering an 
opinion on the U.S. government's accrual-based consolidated financial 
statements: 

- Financial management problems at the Department of Defense (DOD). 

- Inability to adequately account for and reconcile intragovernmental 
activity and balances between federal entities. 

- Ineffective process for preparing the consolidated financial 
statements. 

U.S. Government's Consolidated Financial Statements - Getting to a 
Clean Opinion: 

Department of Defense (DOD): 

* Several entities have received a clean opinion: 

- U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, Defense Finance and Accounting Service, 
Defense Commissary Agency, Defense Contract Audit Agency, Military 
Retirement Fund. 

* U.S. Marine Corps working toward an auditable Statement of Budgetary 
Resources as a first step. Lessons learned may pave the way for other 
military services. 

* DOD focus on improving business systems, ensuring reliability of 
budget information, and existence and completeness of all mission-
critical assets. 

* Financial Improvement and Audit Readiness plan defines path for 
DOD's plans to achieve auditability by 2017. 

Intragovernmental activity & balances between federal entities: 

Key actions taken/planned by Treasury: 

* Developed and issued Intragovernmental Business Rules. 

* Established various focus groups, consisting of Treasury and federal 
entity personnel. 

* Developed and implemented intragovernmental confirmation and 
reporting and analysis systems. 

* Developing financial statements for the General Fund of the U.S. 
Government to help address unreconciled differences existing between 
the General Fund and federal entity trading partners related to 
appropriation and other intragovernmental transactions. 

Consolidated financial statements (CFS) preparation process: 

Key actions taken/planned by Treasury: 

* Developed, documented, and implemented numerous standard operating 
procedures. 

* Hired contractors to assist in addressing certain control 
deficiencies. 

* Continuing to execute and implement corrective action plans to 
address previously identified control deficiencies. 

* Considering obtaining personnel from certain other entities, with 
additional financial reporting expertise, to assist Treasury during 
the year-end CFS preparation process. 

Trend 3: Economic Recovery and Restored Growth: 

* Different scenarios for economic recovery. 

* Replacement of lost jobs. 

* Role of consumers 

* Housing and commercial real estate. 

* The timing of fiscal & monetary support. 

* Managing concerns about inflation. 

Figure: Residential investment as Percent of GDP: 

[Refer to PDF for image: line graph] 

Graph depicts residential investment as Percent of GDP from 1947 
through 2012. Period of recession are highlighted. 

Source: [hyperlink, http://wwvv.calculatedriskblog.com]. 

[End of figure] 

Figure: Non-Residential Investment as Percent of GDP: 

[Refer to PDF for image: line graph] 

Graph depicts structures and equipment and software as Percent of GDP 
from 1947 through 2012. Period of recession are highlighted. 

Source: [hyperlink, http://wwvv.calculatedriskblog.com]. 

[End of figure] 

Trend 3: Economic Recovery and Restored Growth: 

Related GAO work: 

* Assessing the effectiveness of financial and regulatory reform 
efforts and plans to ensure the stability of the overall banking, 
housing, and financial markets. 

* Monitoring and evaluating various federal assistance programs 
designed stabilize U.S. financial markets and boost the economy, 
including investments in infrastructure and job expansion. 

* Continuing to perform our responsibilities under the Recovery Act. 

* Providing analysis on the functioning of the mortgage market and the 
ultimate disposition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. 

* Monitoring services to assist job seekers and supports for low-
income families. 

Trend 4: The Changing Dynamics of Global Interdependence: 

Figure: International Reserves in Developing & Emerging Economies Have 
Increased More Than Twelvefold: 

[Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph] 

Dollars in trillions: 
 
Year: 1990; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.36; 
Advanced Economies: $0.63; 
World: $0.99. 

Year: 1991; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.27; 
Advanced Economies: $0.78; 
World: $1.05. 

Year: 1992; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.28; 
Advanced Economies: $0.77; 
World: $1.05. 

Year: 1993; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.34; 
Advanced Economies: $0.81; 
World: $1.15. 

Year: 1994; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.40; 
Advanced Economies: $0.91; 
World: $1.31. 

Year: 1995; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.50; 
Advanced Economies: $1.03; 
World: $1.53. 

Year: 1996; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.59; 
Advanced Economies: $1.11; 
World: $1.70. 

Year: 1997; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.65; 
Advanced Economies: $1.11; 
World: $1.76. 

Year: 1998; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.66; 
Advanced Economies: $1.15; 
World: $1.81. 

Year: 1999; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.70; 
Advanced Economies: $1.23; 
World: $1.93. 

Year: 2000; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.76; 
Advanced Economies: $1.31; 
World: $2.07. 

Year: 2001; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $0.85; 
Advanced Economies: $1.35; 
World: $2.19. 

Year: 2002; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $1.02; 
Advanced Economies: $1.55; 
World: $2.57. 

Year: 2003; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $1.32; 
Advanced Economies: $1.88; 
World: $3.21. 

Year: 2004; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $1.75; 
Advanced Economies: $2.18; 
World: $3.92. 

Year: 2005; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $2.16; 
Advanced Economies: $2.13; 
World: $4.29. 

Year: 2006; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $2.85; 
Advanced Economies: $2.30; 
World: $5.14. 

Year: 2007; 
Emerging and Developing Economies: $4.04; 
Advanced Economies: $2.47; 
World: $6.52. 

Year: 2008;
Emerging and Developing Economies: $4.50; 
Advanced Economies: $2.54; 
World: $7.03. 

Source: GAO analysis of International Monetary Fund data. 

[End of figure] 

Related GAO work: 

* Understanding the effects of a global supplier base on U.S. national 
security interests and evaluating the effectiveness of programs to 
protect critical technologies. 

* Evaluating efforts to ensure a safe food supply. 

* Evaluating the effectiveness of federal programs to prevent, prepare 
for, and respond to public health emergencies. 

* Evaluating the effectiveness of international food security and food 
aid delivery. 

* Assessing U.S. export promotion programs and other trade-related 
jobs creation efforts. 

* Analyzing energy market regulation, competition, and information. 

Trend 5: Advances in Science and Technology: 

* Nanotechnology. 

* Biomedical technology. 

* Information technology: 

- Quantum computing; 

- Cloud computing; 

- Virtualization technologies; 

- Health IT. 

Figure: China Has Caught Up to the United States in Terms of the 
Number of Scientific Researchers Full-time equivalents: 

[Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph] 

Full-time equivalents (in thousands): 

Year: 1995; 
Russia: 8; 
Taiwan: No data; 
Singapore: 610; 
China: 522; 
South Korea: 100; 
Japan: 673; 
European Union: 964; 
United States: 1036. 

Year: 1996; 
Russia: 9; 
Taiwan: 46; 
Singapore: 562; 
China: 548; 
South Korea: 99; 
Japan: 617; 
European Union: 960; 
United States: 1098. 

Year: 1997; 
Russia: 10; 
Taiwan: 48; 
Singapore: 533; 
China: 589; 
South Korea: 103; 
Japan: 625; 
European Union: 956; 
United States: 1160. 

Year: 1998; 
Russia: 11; 
Taiwan: 54; 
Singapore: 493; 
China: 486; 
South Korea: 93; 
Japan: 653; 
European Union: 994; 
United States: 1210. 

Year: 1999; 
Russia: 13; 
Taiwan: 55; 
Singapore: 497; 
China: 531; 
South Korea: 100; 
Japan: 659; 
European Union: 1036; 
United States: 1261. 

Year: 2000; 
Russia: 17; 
Taiwan: 56; 
Singapore: 506; 
China: 695; 
South Korea: 108; 
Japan: 648; 
European Union: 1079; 
United States: 1289. 

Year: 2001; 
Russia: 17; 
Taiwan: 60; 
Singapore: 506; 
China: 743; 
South Korea: 136; 
Japan: 676; 
European Union: 1116; 
United States: 1320. 

Year: 2002; 
Russia: 18; 
Taiwan: 70; 
Singapore: 492; 
China: 811; 
South Korea: 142; 
Japan: 647; 
European Union: 1174; 
United States: 1343. 

Year: 2003; 
Russia: 20; 
Taiwan: 75; 
Singapore: 488; 
China: 862; 
South Korea: 151; 
Japan: 675; 
European Union: 1206; 
United States: 1431. 

Year: 2004; 
Russia: 21; 
Taiwan: 81; 
Singapore: 478; 
China: 926; 
South Korea: 156; 
Japan: 677; 
European Union: 1239; 
United States: 1394. 

Year: 2005; 
Russia: 24; 
Taiwan: 89; 
Singapore: 465; 
China: 1119; 
South Korea: 180; 
Japan: 705; 
European Union: 1292; 
United States: 1388. 

Year: 2006; 
Russia: 25; 
Taiwan: 95; 
Singapore: 464; 
China: 1224; 
South Korea: 200; 
Japan: 710; 
European Union: 1342; 
United States: 1426. 

Year: 2007; 
Russia: 27; 
Taiwan: 104; 
Singapore: 469; 
China: 1423; 
South Korea: 222; 
Japan: 710; 
European Union: 1360; 
United States: 1442. 

Source: National Science Board. 

Note: 2007 data for United States are estimated based on annual growth 
rate between 1995 and 2006. 

[End of figure] 

Related GAO work: 

* Performing specialized studies and technology assessments of a wide 
range of science and technology issues, such as climate change, 
biotechnology, border security, the challenges of developing 
sophisticated space and defense systems, and renewable and sustainable 
energy. 

* Reviewing the effectiveness of computer and network security at 
federal agencies to better ensure the protection of government and 
personal information. 

* Assessing the government's planning, implementation, and use of IT. 

* Assessing the management and results of the federal investment in 
science and technology and the effectiveness of efforts to protect 
intellectual property. 

* Reviewing federal efforts to turn around low-performing schools and 
serve special populations. 

Trend 6: Increasing Impact of Networks and Virtualization: 

* Less-expensive technology that is increasingly more powerful. 

* Greater prevalence of wireless networks. 

* More powerful portable devices. 

* Increased collaboration and sharing at home, in school, and at work. 

* Consumers are becoming content creators. 

* Location and time independence (telework, virtual meetings). 

Related GAO work: 

* Assessing federal efforts to promote affordable access to telephone 
and broadband Internet services, including cloud computing. 

* Reviewing the management of government telecommunications and 
interconnected systems and federal agencies' effectiveness in 
providing secure, reliable, and fast Internet and Web connections. 

* Assessing DOD and DHS's efforts to enhance the resiliency of 
critical national assets, networks, and systems. 

* Analyzing and supporting efforts to improve the federal workforce 
infrastructure. 

Trend 7: Shifting Roles in Government and Governance: 

* Evolving roles for the public, private, and NGO sectors. 

* Contracting. 

* State and local government. 

* Non-profit and non-governmental organizations. 

Related GAO work: 

* Focusing on major areas that are at high-risk, including the U.S. 
Postal Service's financial condition, and on implementation of 
Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) Modernization Act of 
2010. 

* Assessing the government's strategy for managing its reliance on 
contractors to ensure that agencies determine the right mix of as well 
as proper roles and responsibilities for government and contractor 
employees. 

* Identifying ways to improve the acquisition of goods and services by 
federal agencies. 

* Identifying opportunities to improve the coordination, 
collaboration, and governance of networks of governmental and 
nongovernmental organizations to address complex national issues. 

GPRA Modernization Act Goals: 

* Adopting a more coordinated and crosscutting approach to achieving 
common goals. 

* Addressing weaknesses in major management functions. 

* Ensuring performance information is both useful and used in decision 
making. 

* Instilling sustained leadership commitment and accountability for 
achieving results. 

* Engaging Congress in identifying management and performance issues 
to address. 
 
Trend 8: Demographic and Societal Changes Confronting Young and Old: 

Figure: Fewer Workers Will Be Supporting Each Retiree: 

[Refer to PDF for image: line graph] 
 
Year: 1960; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 5.1. 
 
Year: 1970; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 3.7. 
 
Year: 1980; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 3.2. 

Year: 1990; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 3.4. 

Year: 2000; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Historical: 3.4 

Year: 2010; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 3.0. 

Year: 2020; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.4. 

Year: 2030; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.2. 

Year: 2040; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.1. 

Year: 2050; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.1. 

Year: 2060; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.1. 

Year: 2070; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.0. 

Year: 2080; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 2.0. 

Year: 2085; 
Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary (percentage), Estimated: 1.9. 

Source: Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees. 

[End of figure] 

Related GAO work: 

* Supporting health care financing and reform efforts through analyses 
of Medicare, Medicaid, and other health programs. 

* Assessing policy and administrative challenges to the federal 
government in providing for Americans' financial security in 
retirement, as well as options and strategies to help individuals 
ensure retirement security for themselves and their families. 

* Assessing financial and administrative challenges to providing 
employer-sponsored pensions and retaining older Americans in the 
workforce, and their implications for retirement security. 

* Evaluating the federal government's efforts to assist communities 
with combating crime and to safely and effectively manage a growing 
federal prison population. 

On the Web: 

Web site: [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/] 

Contact: 
Chuck Young, Managing Director, Public Affairs: 
youngc1@gao.gov; 
(202) 512-4800: 
U.S. Government Accountability Office: 
441 G Street NW, Room 7149: 
Washington, D.C. 20548: 

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[End of presentation]